Liberty @ New Mexico State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 10:15 PM EDTWeek 2 · at New Mexico State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Liberty

1-0 · Power #95

▲ winner

Final

New Mexico State

1-0 · Power #130

final

Closing spread

LIB -22.5

✓ NMSU W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

LIB 39–20 NMSU

✓ LIB (92%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -20.5

CloseLIB -22.5

Total57.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLIB -20.5

2 → LIB

CloseLIB -22.5

2 pts toward Liberty

Total

Open57.5

▼ 3

Close54.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LIB -20.5 · closed LIB -22.5 · moved 2 toward LIBmodel LIB -8

model LIB -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (26 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -20.5

CloseLIB -22.5

Total57.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 22.5-point road favorite at NMSU, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: LIB won 30–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 54 points stayed under 54.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Below normal · usually 90%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 7.1 against an average line of 19; 55.9 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	APP @ TXST 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-19.5	24–36	L	O54.5
Loose	FRES @ NEV 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-22.5	41–14	W	O54
Loose	AFA @ HAW 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread	-20.5	13–27	L	U47.5
Loose	CCU @ USA 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & total	-15	27–21	L	U55
Loose	FLA @ SC 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread	-20.5	17–40	L	O52
Loose	CLEM @ BC 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-21	31–3	W	U48.75
Loose	LIB @ UTEP 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & total	-17.5	42–28	L	O54.5
Loose	UAB @ LT 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest	-18	37–27	L	O55.5
Loose	TOL @ MASS 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & total	-19	41–24	L	O55.5
Loose	ORE @ CAL 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-16.75	42–24	W	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIB L	0-1	0%	—	0-1
NMSU L	0-1	0%	0-1	—

Venue/role: LIB away, as favorite; NMSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB O	1-0	100%	1-0
NMSU U	0-1	0%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 28. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIB	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
NMSU	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

LIB 7–2 NMSU LIB leads · 9 games since 2018 · LIB has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 1 2023	New Mexico State 35 @ Liberty 49	LIB -10	LIB W
Sep 9 2023	New Mexico State 17 @ Liberty 33	LIB -9	LIB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LIB+3.4 →+2.8▼ 0.6#52

NMSU−7.8 →−9.6▼ 1.8#110

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

LIB

Longer bar = better

NMSU

#34

Offense

◀ LIB better

#101

#83

Defense

NMSU better ▶

#66

−1.0 #111

Turnovers

NMSU better ▶

0.0 #60

76 plays #15

Pace

◀ LIB faster

72 plays #33

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: LIB offense

	LIB off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	41.0 #36	16.0 #55	Even
Yards / play	7.01 #37	5.33 #80	LIB
PPA / play	+0.33 #39	+0.03 #74	LIB
Success rate	53% #22	35% #53	LIB

When NMSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NMSU off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #100	24.0 #86	Even
Yards / play	3.75 #133	6.20 #111	LIB
PPA / play	+0.05 #96	+0.13 #97	Even
Success rate	42% #76	33% #37	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.