Sacramento State @ Fresno State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 10:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Fresno State

Weather at kickoff97°F5 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Sacramento State

0-1

final

Final

Fresno State

0-1 · Power #84

▲ winner

Closing spread

FRES -18.5

✓ SAC W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 76 pts

Model before kickoff

SAC 19–37 FRES

✓ FRES (89%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFRES -15.5

CloseFRES -18.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFRES -15.5

3 → FRES

CloseFRES -18.5

3 pts toward Fresno State

Total

Open56.5

▼ 1

Close55.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FRES -15.5 · closed FRES -18.5 · moved 3 toward FRESmodel FRES -13.5

model FRES -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–20.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 49% (76 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (25 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFRES -15.5

CloseFRES -18.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FRES as an 18.5-point home favorite against SAC, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: FRES won 46–30; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 76 points went over 55.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20.6 against an average line of 17.9; 55 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ILL vs FAU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-16	23–17	L	U45.5
Loose	MSST vs USM 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & spread	-18.5	41–20	W	O47.5
Loose	UTEP vs NMSU 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-17	20–13	L	U46.5
Loose	UL vs OHIO 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation	-19	49–14	W	O56.5
Loose	USC vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar total & rest	-21.5	41–34	L	O55.5
Loose	TLSA vs USF 2022 · Week 12 · loose	-13.75	48–42	L	O57.5
Loose	WSU vs CSU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & total	-17	38–7	W	U52.25
Loose	WASH vs ARST 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-17.5	52–3	W	U58.5
Loose	NCST vs USF 2021 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread	-20	45–0	W	U58
Loose	GT vs NIU 2021 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread	-19	21–22	L	U57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1
FRES –	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: SAC away, as underdog; FRES home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC O	1-0	100%	0-1
FRES –	0-0	—	0-1

Went over in Q3. Of 199 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%
FRES	5-5 50%	2-7 22%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

SAC 0–6 FRES FRES leads · 6 games since 1972 · FRES has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SAC−11.9 →−9.9▲ 2.0

FRES−2.4 →−0.1▲ 2.3#67

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

SAC

Longer bar = better

FRES

#111

Offense

◀ SAC better

#129

#113

Defense

FRES better ▶

#85

−2.0 #132

Turnovers

FRES better ▶

−1.0 #113

82 plays #3

Pace

◀ SAC faster

58 plays #120

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SAC has the ball

Advantage: FRES defense

	SAC off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #98	30.0 #107	Even
Yards / play	4.34 #123	4.41 #48	FRES
PPA / play	−0.12 #128	+0.04 #77	FRES
Success rate	40% #94	44% #106	Even

When FRES has the ball

Even matchup

	FRES off	SAC def	Edge
Points / game	10.0 #129	42.0 #131	Even
Yards / play	4.21 #124	5.86 #100	SAC
PPA / play	−0.26 #135	+0.20 #109	SAC
Success rate	33% #128	45% #110	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.