New Mexico State @ Fresno State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Fresno State

Weather at kickoff83°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

New Mexico State

1-1 · Power #130

final

Final

Fresno State

1-1 · Power #84

▲ winner

Closing spread

FRES -19.5

✓ FRES W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

NMSU 15–34 FRES

✓ FRES (91%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFRES -21

CloseFRES -19.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFRES -21

1.5 → NMSU

CloseFRES -19.5

1.5 pts toward New Mexico State

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FRES -21 · closed FRES -19.5 · moved 1.5 toward NMSUmodel FRES -16.5

model FRES -16.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 17.5–21.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 49% (75 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFRES -21

CloseFRES -19.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FRES as a 19.5-point home favorite against NMSU, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: FRES won 48–0; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 48.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.8 against an average line of 18.8; 52.8 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BYU vs WYO 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & rest	-21.25	38–24	L	O49.75
Very close	IU vs AKR 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & rest	-16.5	29–27	L	O46
Close	UTSA vs ECU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest	-17.5	41–27	L	O48
Close	MEM vs TEM 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	24–3	W	U50
Close	AFA vs UNLV 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-18.5	48–14	W	O49.5
Close	TROY vs ARST 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-15.5	37–3	W	U52
Close	MSST vs WMU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-21	41–28	L	O55
Close	GT vs BGSU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-22	27–38	L	O51.5
Close	OHIO vs WMU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-16.5	20–17	L	U52
Close	NEB vs LT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-20.5	28–14	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NMSU LW	1-1	50%	—	1-0
FRES –L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: NMSU away, as underdog; FRES home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU UU	0-2	0%	1-1
FRES –O	1-0	100%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 1 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%
FRES	5-5 50%	2-7 22%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NMSU 0–1 FRES FRES leads · 1 game since 2023 · FRES has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 16 2023	New Mexico State 10 @ Fresno State 37	NMSU -3	FRES W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NMSU−7.8 →−12.2▼ 4.4#118

FRES−2.4 →0.0▲ 2.4#67

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

NMSU

Longer bar = better

FRES

#114

Offense

FRES better ▶

#100

#83

Defense

Even

#73

−0.5 #95

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #99

69 plays #41

Pace

Even

69 plays #42

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: FRES defense

	NMSU off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #102	30.0 #107	Even
Yards / play	4.05 #132	5.39 #78	FRES
PPA / play	−0.04 #123	−0.05 #38	FRES
Success rate	40% #98	40% #70	FRES

When FRES has the ball

Even matchup

	FRES off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #80	23.0 #80	Even
Yards / play	5.53 #96	6.35 #116	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #113	+0.12 #87	NMSU
Success rate	39% #111	36% #50	NMSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 105 FBS teams

NMSU scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	5.0	8.5	13.5	0.0	10.0	10.0
FRES allowed	5.0	5.0	10.0	5.0	15.0	20.0

FRES scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	9.0	5.0	14.0	7.0	7.0	14.0
NMSU allowed	5.0	4.5	9.5	1.5	12.0	13.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.