New Mexico State @ Sam Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Sam Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff94°F8 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico State

1-2 · Power #130

final

Final

Sam Houston

2-1 · Power #93

▲ winner

Closing spread

SHSU -14.5

✓ SHSU W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

NMSU 17–31 SHSU

✓ SHSU (84%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSHSU -12

CloseSHSU -14.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSHSU -12

2.5 → SHSU

CloseSHSU -14.5

2.5 pts toward Sam Houston

Total

Open43.5

no move

Close43.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SHSU -12 · closed SHSU -14.5 · moved 2.5 toward SHSUmodel SHSU -13

model SHSU -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 89%, covered 55% (53 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (43 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSHSU -12

CloseSHSU -14.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SHSU as a 14.5-point home favorite against NMSU, the favorite won 8, covered 0, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: SHSU won 31–11; the favorite covered, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 43.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

0 of 100%

Below normal · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 2.7 against an average line of 14.3; 50.5 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CSU vs NEV 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-12.5	30–20	L	O45.5
Close	IU vs AKR 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-16.5	29–27	L	O46
Close	NAVY vs TEM 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	27–20	L	O41.5
Close	SJSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	24–13	L	U48.5
Close	BC vs CONN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	21–14	L	U49
Close	BGSU vs AKR 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-14	20–35	L	O46
Close	CAL vs ASU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-12.5	24–21	L	U47.5
Close	BUFF vs BGSU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	44–56	L	O51.5
Close	NIU vs EMU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-12	20–13	L	U43.5
Close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-16.5	27–20	L	P47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NMSU LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1
SHSU WL–	1-1	50%	—	—

Venue/role: NMSU away, as underdog; SHSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU UUU	0-3	0%	1-2
SHSU UO–	1-1	50%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 18. 55% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%
SHSU	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NMSU 3–1 SHSU NMSU leads · 4 games since 2023 · NMSU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 11 2023	Sam Houston 13 @ New Mexico State 27	NMSU -3.5	NMSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NMSU−7.8 →−16.2▼ 8.4#128

SHSU−10.8 →−7.3▲ 3.5#96

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

NMSU

Longer bar = better

SHSU

#128

Offense

SHSU better ▶

#92

#101

Defense

SHSU better ▶

#84

−1.3 #121

Turnovers

SHSU better ▶

0.0 #86

66 plays #65

Pace

Even

66 plays #72

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: SHSU defense

	NMSU off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	15.7 #125	24.0 #84	SHSU
Yards / play	3.50 #134	5.71 #89	SHSU
PPA / play	−0.09 #128	+0.10 #85	SHSU
Success rate	34% #125	40% #76	SHSU

When SHSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SHSU off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #90	31.3 #113	SHSU
Yards / play	5.66 #91	6.82 #128	SHSU
PPA / play	+0.14 #76	+0.20 #105	SHSU
Success rate	38% #112	38% #59	NMSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 129 FBS teams

NMSU scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	3.3 #105	5.7 #96	9.0 #107	0.0 #127	6.7 #70	6.7 #121
SHSU allowed	4.7 #68	6.7 #60	11.3 #70	10.3 #121	2.3 #19	12.7 #81

SHSU scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	8.0 #42	8.0 #72	16.0 #64	5.7 #80	4.7 #93	10.3 #94
NMSU allowed	8.0 #109	8.7 #95	16.7 #105	6.7 #83	8.0 #100	14.7 #103

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.