Texas State vs Sam Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 3:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Texas State

2-1 · Power #54

final

Final

Sam Houston

3-1 · Power #93

▲ winner

Closing spread

TXST -10.5

✓ SHSU W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 79 pts

Model before kickoff

TXST 32–23 SHSU

✗ TXST (76%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -8

CloseTXST -10.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTXST -8

2.5 → TXST

CloseTXST -10.5

2.5 pts toward Texas State

Total

Open55.5

▼ 1

Close54.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TXST -8 · closed TXST -10.5 · moved 2.5 toward TXSTmodel TXST -6.5

model TXST -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (48 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -8

CloseTXST -10.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 10.5-point neutral-site favorite against SHSU, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: SHSU won 40–39 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 79 points went over 54.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.7 against an average line of 9.5; 54.1 points a game (usually 55.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TOL vs MTSU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & team ratings	-10.5	24–31	L	O50
Loose	ECU vs USF 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & team ratings	-9.5	48–28	W	O55.5
Loose	LIB vs EMU 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar spread	-9.5	56–20	W	O58.5
Loose	LOU vs IU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation	-10	21–14	L	U50.5
Loose	CCU vs NIU 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar spread	-12	47–41	L	O63.5
Loose	MSST vs TTU 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar total	-10	7–34	L	U58
Loose	FRES vs UTEP 2021 · Postseason · loose	-13	31–24	L	O54.5
Loose	ORST vs FLA 2022 · Postseason · loose	-7.5	30–3	W	U51.75
Loose	WSU vs CMU 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar total	-5.5	21–24	L	U56
Loose	TOL vs M-OH 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-7	14–23	L	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
TXST –WL	1-1	50%	—	1-1
SHSU WL–W	2-1	67%	—	1-1

Venue/role: TXST neutral, as favorite; SHSU neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXST –OO	2-0	100%	2-1
SHSU UO–U	1-2	33%	3-1

Went over in Q3. Of 229 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXST	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	6-3 67%
SHSU	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TXST−3.2 →+0.1▲ 3.3#68

SHSU−10.8 →−6.0▲ 4.8#93

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

TXST

Longer bar = better

SHSU

#57

Offense

◀ TXST better

#94

#41

Defense

◀ TXST better

#65

−1.0 #117

Turnovers

SHSU better ▶

+0.3 #74

76 plays #7

Pace

◀ TXST faster

70 plays #40

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TXST has the ball

Even matchup

	TXST off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #28	20.8 #57	TXST
Yards / play	6.10 #63	5.03 #55	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #59	+0.10 #79	Even
Success rate	43% #77	40% #68	Even

When SHSU has the ball

Advantage: TXST defense

	SHSU off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #85	22.7 #66	Even
Yards / play	5.38 #101	4.51 #29	TXST
PPA / play	+0.14 #76	+0.05 #62	Even
Success rate	38% #112	31% #6	TXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TXST scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	12.0 #12	12.7 #25	24.7 #15	5.7 #84	6.7 #77	12.3 #77
SHSU allowed	4.3 #66	5.0 #36	9.3 #49	7.8 #103	3.8 #42	11.5 #68

SHSU scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	9.5 #30	7.8 #79	17.3 #51	4.3 #104	6.0 #87	10.3 #101
TXST allowed	3.3 #47	4.7 #35	8.0 #35	8.0 #108	6.7 #81	14.7 #106

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.