Georgia Southern @ Georgia State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Georgia State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F12 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Georgia Southern

2-2 · Power #90

▲ winner

Final

Georgia State

2-1 · Power #110

final

Closing spread

GAST -3.5

✓ GASO W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

GASO 26–29 GAST

✗ GAST (60%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGAST -0.5

CloseGAST -3.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGAST -0.5

3 → GAST

CloseGAST -3.5

3 pts toward Georgia State

Total

Open57.5

▼ 1

Close56.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GAST -0.5 · closed GAST -3.5 · moved 3 toward GASTmodel GAST -4.5

model GAST -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 48% (128 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (49 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGAST -0.5

CloseGAST -3.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GAST as a 3.5-point home favorite against GASO, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: GASO won 38–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3.2 against an average line of 3.5; 53.4 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CONN vs USF 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-1	21–24	L	U57
Very close	TULN vs USF 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-5.5	45–14	W	U59.5
Very close	EMU vs CMU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-1	38–19	W	O53.5
Very close	ODU vs ARST 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-5	29–26	L	U56
Very close	NIU vs WMU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & season form	-4	24–0	W	U55.5
Very close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & season form	-4.5	22–35	L	O54
Very close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Close	NAVY vs USF 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-4	30–44	L	O54.5
Close	WMU vs EMU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	23–45	L	O55.5
Close	FAU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & season form	-3	20–17	P	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GASO WWWL	3-1	75%	1-1	2-1
GAST –LW	1-1	50%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: GASO away, as underdog; GAST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO OUOU	2-2	50%	2-2
GAST –UO	1-1	50%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 232 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASO	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
GAST	4-6 40%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

GASO 1–0 GAST GASO leads · 1 game since 2023 · GASO has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2023	Georgia State 27 @ Georgia Southern 44	Pick’em	GASO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GASO−6.0 →−10.0▼ 4.0#106

GAST−5.1 →−8.7▼ 3.6#103

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

GASO

Longer bar = better

GAST

#94

Offense

Even

#91

#128

Defense

GAST better ▶

#113

+0.3 #71

Turnovers

GAST better ▶

+0.7 #45

67 plays #60

Pace

GAST faster ▶

70 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GASO has the ball

Even matchup

	GASO off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #72	29.3 #101	GASO
Yards / play	4.82 #118	6.52 #125	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #79	+0.25 #119	GASO
Success rate	39% #107	43% #105	Even

When GAST has the ball

Advantage: GAST offense

	GAST off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #104	34.8 #121	Even
Yards / play	5.58 #93	7.38 #132	GAST
PPA / play	+0.12 #87	+0.30 #130	GAST
Success rate	43% #78	50% #127	GAST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

GASO scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	3.5 #106	11.8 #32	15.3 #70	8.5 #33	6.3 #81	14.8 #55
GAST allowed	4.7 #71	5.7 #42	10.3 #59	7.0 #90	12.0 #130	19.0 #128

GAST scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	2.0 #125	6.3 #100	8.3 #116	8.7 #32	7.0 #61	15.7 #48
GASO allowed	11.3 #129	7.0 #63	18.3 #113	8.0 #108	8.5 #110	16.5 #120

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.