Old Dominion @ Bowling Green: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 5:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Bowling Green

Weather at kickoff72°F11 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Old Dominion

0-3 · Power #78

▲ winner

Final

Bowling Green

1-2 · Power #75

final

Closing spread

BGSU -11.5

✓ ODU W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

ODU 19–31 BGSU

✗ BGSU (79%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBGSU -9.5

CloseBGSU -11.5

Total49.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBGSU -9.5

2 → BGSU

CloseBGSU -11.5

2 pts toward Bowling Green

Total

Open49.5

▲ 2

Close51.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BGSU -9.5 · closed BGSU -11.5 · moved 2 toward BGSUmodel BGSU -11

model BGSU -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 38% (48 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (52 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBGSU -9.5

CloseBGSU -11.5

Total49.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BGSU as an 11.5-point home favorite against ODU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: ODU won 30–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 51.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 77%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 12.2; 61 points a game (usually 55.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TOL vs BALL 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-13.5	28–21	L	U53.5
Close	WMU vs BALL 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-12.5	20–45	L	O57.5
Close	MSU vs IU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread	-12	31–39	L	O47.25
Close	VT vs DUKE 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-13	48–17	W	O50.5
Close	WYO vs HAW 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-13	14–38	L	O48.5
Close	ORST vs STAN 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread	-12.5	35–14	W	U56.25
Close	CCU vs ODU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-11.25	21–49	L	O58.5
Close	ARMY vs CONN 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-10.5	34–17	W	O45
Close	FAU vs FIU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-10.5	58–21	W	O52
Close	ECU vs ODU 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation	-13	39–21	W	O49.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ODU WLL	1-2	33%	1-0	1-1
BGSU WW–	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: ODU away, as underdog; BGSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ODU UUO	1-2	33%	0-3
BGSU UO–	1-1	50%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 270 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ODU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
BGSU	6-4 60%	7-2 78%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ODU−8.4 →−8.3▲ 0.1#101

BGSU−5.6 →−1.0▲ 4.6#74

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

ODU

Longer bar = better

BGSU

#123

Offense

BGSU better ▶

#61

#60

Defense

◀ ODU better

#107

−0.7 #101

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #90

67 plays #64

Pace

◀ ODU faster

61 plays #117

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ODU has the ball

Even matchup

	ODU off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	16.7 #125	25.7 #82	BGSU
Yards / play	4.42 #130	6.43 #123	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #114	+0.26 #124	Even
Success rate	35% #122	43% #97	BGSU

When BGSU has the ball

Even matchup

	BGSU off	ODU def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #77	26.7 #87	Even
Yards / play	6.53 #37	4.98 #52	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #48	+0.03 #56	Even
Success rate	42% #83	37% #46	ODU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ODU scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ODU scored	2.3 #128	5.7 #107	8.0 #117	5.3 #88	3.3 #122	8.7 #116
BGSU allowed	4.7 #70	7.3 #71	12.0 #70	7.0 #94	6.7 #81	13.7 #91

BGSU scoring against the ODU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	10.0 #22	8.0 #75	18.0 #44	7.0 #62	4.3 #108	11.3 #95
ODU allowed	10.0 #126	1.0 #3	11.0 #58	6.7 #89	9.0 #118	15.7 #113

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.