Akron @ Ohio: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Ohio · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F2 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Akron

1-3 · Power #124

final

Final

Ohio

2-2 · Power #65

▲ winner

Closing spread

OHIO -7.5

✓ OHIO W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

AKR 20–29 OHIO

✓ OHIO (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOHIO -12

CloseOHIO -7.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOHIO -12

4.5 → AKR

CloseOHIO -7.5

4.5 pts toward Akron

Total

Open45.5

no move

Close45.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OHIO -12 · closed OHIO -7.5 · moved 4.5 toward AKRmodel OHIO -13

model OHIO -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 53% (75 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOHIO -12

CloseOHIO -7.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OHIO as a 7.5-point home favorite against AKR, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: OHIO won 30–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 45.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 8.1; 44.6 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SDSU vs NEV 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-11	0–6	L	U48.5
Close	BALL vs KENT 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & total	-10.5	34–3	W	U42
Close	CSU vs UTEP 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-8.5	27–17	W	U49
Close	CMU vs BGSU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	18–34	L	O50.5
Close	EMU vs MASS 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest	-7.5	19–17	L	U49.75
Close	UL vs USM 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-8.5	31–34	L	O52.5
Close	BUFF vs OHIO 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	27–26	L	U54.5
Close	UTEP vs RICE 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-9	38–28	W	O47
Close	EMU vs KENT 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	28–14	W	O40
Close	BGSU vs BALL 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation	-4.5	24–21	L	O39.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AKR WLLL	1-3	25%	1-2	1-2
OHIO WWLL	2-2	50%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: AKR away, as underdog; OHIO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AKR OOOO	4-0	100%	1-3
OHIO OUUO	2-2	50%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 52% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AKR	2-8 20%	4-5-1 44%	7-3 70%
OHIO	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

AKR 10–23 OHIO OHIO leads · 33 games since 1992 · OHIO has won the last 7 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 24 2023	Ohio 25 @ Akron 14	OHIO -16	AKR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AKR−13.9 →−17.3▼ 3.4#127

OHIO−3.6 →−7.5▼ 3.9#98

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

AKR

Longer bar = better

OHIO

#124

Offense

OHIO better ▶

#94

#125

Defense

OHIO better ▶

#91

−0.8 #105

Turnovers

◀ AKR better

−1.3 #122

62 plays #102

Pace

Even

61 plays #112

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AKR has the ball

Advantage: OHIO defense

	AKR off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	15.3 #128	26.3 #85	OHIO
Yards / play	4.23 #132	5.74 #90	OHIO
PPA / play	−0.04 #123	+0.16 #96	OHIO
Success rate	38% #113	42% #92	OHIO

When OHIO has the ball

Advantage: OHIO offense

	OHIO off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #116	42.8 #132	Even
Yards / play	5.73 #87	6.27 #118	OHIO
PPA / play	+0.03 #111	+0.28 #127	Even
Success rate	44% #62	48% #123	OHIO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

AKR scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	2.5 #121	7.8 #80	10.3 #103	2.5 #123	2.5 #127	5.0 #131
OHIO allowed	1.5 #12	11.0 #114	12.5 #77	7.8 #104	6.0 #74	13.8 #95

OHIO scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	5.8 #76	4.3 #119	10.0 #106	5.3 #90	3.8 #115	9.0 #112
AKR allowed	11.5 #131	7.8 #80	19.3 #118	11.3 #132	12.3 #131	23.5 #132

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.