Eastern Michigan @ Kent State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Kent State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F5 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Eastern Michigan

3-1 · Power #120

▲ winner

Final

Kent State

0-4 · Power #134

final

Closing spread

EMU -13.5

✓ EMU W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 85 pts

Model before kickoff

EMU 34–20 KENT

✓ EMU (83%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenEMU -14

CloseEMU -13.5

Total48.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenEMU -14

0.5 → KENT

CloseEMU -13.5

0.5 pts toward Kent State

Total

Open48.5

▼ 4

Close44.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened EMU -14 · closed EMU -13.5 · moved 0.5 toward KENTmodel EMU -14

model EMU -14

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 11.5–15.5 since 2023: won 86%, covered 56% (43 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenEMU -14

CloseEMU -13.5

Total48.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like EMU as a 13.5-point road favorite at KENT, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: EMU won 52–33; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 85 points went over 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 81%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.1 against an average line of 13.8; 50.3 points a game (usually 55.3). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	M-OH @ KENT 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-14.5	23–3	W	U49.5
Loose	DUKE @ MTSU 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-14.5	45–17	W	O51
Loose	USA @ BGSU 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & rest	-14.5	22–19	L	U48
Loose	CAL @ COLO 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & spread	-15	13–20	L	U49
Loose	NAVY @ TEM 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & spread	-13.5	38–14	W	O42.5
Loose	BUFF @ MASS 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-17	34–7	W	U47.5
Loose	WYO @ HAW 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-11.5	27–20	L	U50.75
Loose	BGSU @ KENT 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-10.5	49–19	W	O41.5
Loose	MTSU @ CONN 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread & situation	-14	44–13	W	O54
Loose	ASU @ COLO 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & rest	-13	42–34	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EMU WWWW	4-0	100%	2-0	1-0
KENT LLL–	0-3	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: EMU away, as favorite; KENT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
EMU UUOU	1-3	25%	3-1
KENT OUO–	2-1	67%	0-4

Went over in Q3. Of 174 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EMU	5-5 50%	6-3-1 67%	5-5 50%
KENT	0-10 0%	1-8 11%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

EMU 1–0 KENT EMU leads · 1 game since 2023 · EMU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Kent State 14 @ Eastern Michigan 28	EMU -7.5	EMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

EMU−13.3 →−10.2▲ 3.1#108

KENT−20.0 →−25.2▼ 5.2#134

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

EMU

Longer bar = better

KENT

#100

Offense

◀ EMU better

#135

#76

Defense

◀ EMU better

#136

+0.8 #38

Turnovers

◀ EMU better

+0.3 #65

71 plays #26

Pace

◀ EMU faster

56 plays #132

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When EMU has the ball

Advantage: EMU offense

	EMU off	KENT def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #83	51.3 #137	EMU
Yards / play	4.75 #120	7.80 #135	Even
PPA / play	+0.01 #113	+0.39 #135	EMU
Success rate	43% #82	54% #137	EMU

When KENT has the ball

Advantage: EMU defense

	KENT off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	10.3 #136	19.5 #45	EMU
Yards / play	3.02 #137	5.47 #75	EMU
PPA / play	−0.15 #134	+0.04 #58	EMU
Success rate	31% #134	49% #124	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

EMU scoring against the KENT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	6.8 #64	8.5 #70	15.3 #70	5.5 #86	5.3 #95	10.8 #99
KENT allowed	17.0 #134	18.3 #134	35.3 #134	8.5 #114	7.5 #96	16.0 #116

KENT scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENT scored	1.8 #128	5.3 #110	7.0 #126	2.5 #123	0.8 #133	3.3 #133
EMU allowed	1.8 #14	8.5 #92	10.3 #57	4.0 #40	4.5 #53	8.5 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.