Miami (OH) @ Eastern Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Eastern Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Miami (OH)

1-4 · Power #73

▲ winner

Final

Eastern Michigan

4-1 · Power #120

final

Closing spread

M-OH -2.5

✓ M-OH W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

M-OH 22–20 EMU

✓ M-OH (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -3

CloseM-OH -2.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenM-OH -3

0.5 → EMU

CloseM-OH -2.5

0.5 pts toward Eastern Michigan

Total

Open45.5

▲ 1

Close46.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened M-OH -3 · closed M-OH -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward EMUmodel EMU -0.5

model EMU -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 52%, covered 43% (91 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -3

CloseM-OH -2.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like M-OH as a 2.5-point road favorite at EMU, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: M-OH won 38–14; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 46.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5 against an average line of 3.1; 43.8 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NAVY @ CLT 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	14–0	W	U44.5
Close	MRSH @ CCU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	6–34	L	U47
Close	BALL @ EMU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-1	38–31	W	O55
Close	LT @ ODU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-4	20–23	L	U52.25
Close	FAU @ UTEP 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	21–24	L	U50.75
Close	MTSU @ SHSU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	20–23	L	U50
Close	TROY @ UL 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	23–17	W	U42.5
Close	USM @ TXST 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-2.5	20–14	W	U43
Close	NIU @ AKR 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-4	55–14	W	O42.5
Close	WYO @ UNM 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	27–14	W	O37

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
M-OH LLWLL	1-4	20%	1-2	0-1
EMU WWWWW	5-0	100%	2-0	3-0

Venue/role: M-OH away, as favorite; EMU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
M-OH UUUUO	1-4	20%	1-4
EMU UUOUO	2-3	40%	4-1

Went over in Q4. Of 227 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
M-OH	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	1-9 10%
EMU	6-4 60%	6-3-1 67%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

M-OH−4.7 →−6.8▼ 2.1#95

EMU−13.3 →−8.7▲ 4.6#102

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

M-OH

Longer bar = better

EMU

#122

Offense

EMU better ▶

#79

#87

Defense

Even

#76

−0.2 #84

Turnovers

EMU better ▶

+1.4 #8

63 plays #102

Pace

EMU faster ▶

74 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: EMU defense

	M-OH off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	13.6 #136	22.2 #55	EMU
Yards / play	5.00 #118	5.73 #90	EMU
PPA / play	−0.02 #123	+0.03 #38	EMU
Success rate	39% #109	48% #122	Even

When EMU has the ball

Even matchup

	EMU off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	32.4 #47	23.6 #66	Even
Yards / play	5.00 #119	5.71 #89	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.06 #99	+0.12 #85	Even
Success rate	45% #52	44% #107	EMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

M-OH scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	2.6 #126	2.4 #132	5.0 #134	4.2 #109	3.8 #126	8.0 #124
EMU allowed	2.8 #21	8.2 #86	11.0 #56	4.6 #49	6.0 #65	10.6 #49

EMU scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	6.8 #63	9.6 #50	16.4 #56	7.8 #46	7.0 #62	14.8 #49
M-OH allowed	5.4 #76	6.0 #45	11.4 #61	4.8 #53	7.4 #95	12.2 #75

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.