Toledo @ Buffalo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Buffalo · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Toledo

4-1 · Power #88

final

Final

Buffalo

3-2 · Power #105

▲ winner

Closing spread

TOL -10.5

✓ BUFF W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

TOL 29–18 BUFF

✗ TOL (78%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -9

CloseTOL -10.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTOL -9

1.5 → TOL

CloseTOL -10.5

1.5 pts toward Toledo

Total

Open45.5

▼ 1

Close44.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TOL -9 · closed TOL -10.5 · moved 1.5 toward TOLmodel TOL -11

model TOL -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–12.5 since 2023: won 82%, covered 56% (57 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (53 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -9

CloseTOL -10.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 10.5-point road favorite at BUFF, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BUFF won 30–15 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 45 points went over 44.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.6 against an average line of 10; 52.8 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 3 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL @ BGSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-10.5	49–17	W	O50
Very close	AFA @ UNM 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-11.5	38–10	W	O45.5
Very close	SMU @ ECU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-11.5	31–10	W	U49
Very close	USA @ USM 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & season form	-7.5	27–20	L	O45
Close	APP @ ULM 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-13.5	41–40	L	O51
Close	TOL @ WMU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-8.5	14–20	L	U50.5
Close	SHSU @ UTEP 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-10	41–21	W	O49.5
Close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-7.5	37–3	W	U48
Close	OHIO @ BUFF 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-9.5	20–10	W	U45
Close	ECU @ CLT 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	24–55	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOL WLWLW	3-2	60%	1-1	2-2
BUFF WLWWL	3-2	60%	2-0	1-2

Venue/role: TOL away, as favorite; BUFF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL OOOUO	4-1	80%	4-1
BUFF UUUOO	2-3	40%	3-2

Went over in Q4. Of 190 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOL	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
BUFF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TOL 6–6 BUFF Series tied · 12 games since 1970 · BUFF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 31 2023	Buffalo 13 @ Toledo 31	TOL -15.5	TOL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TOL−0.4 →−2.7▼ 2.3#79

BUFF−12.2 →−14.9▼ 2.7#122

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

TOL

Longer bar = better

BUFF

#66

Offense

◀ TOL better

#127

#35

Defense

◀ TOL better

#59

+0.6 #40

Turnovers

◀ TOL better

+0.2 #61

68 plays #60

Pace

◀ TOL faster

60 plays #127

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TOL has the ball

Even matchup

	TOL off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	35.8 #27	24.2 #74	TOL
Yards / play	5.56 #91	4.85 #27	BUFF
PPA / play	+0.15 #71	+0.08 #68	Even
Success rate	43% #73	40% #67	Even

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	BUFF off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #125	19.2 #35	TOL
Yards / play	4.24 #133	5.02 #39	TOL
PPA / play	+0.01 #114	+0.02 #35	TOL
Success rate	30% #136	37% #29	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TOL scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	9.8 #18	11.6 #24	21.4 #20	7.6 #49	6.8 #68	14.4 #54
BUFF allowed	4.0 #42	8.8 #92	12.8 #77	5.4 #68	6.0 #65	11.4 #61

BUFF scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	4.0 #102	2.4 #132	6.4 #131	6.2 #69	4.8 #111	11.0 #102
TOL allowed	2.0 #9	5.8 #44	7.8 #18	4.4 #49	7.0 #88	11.4 #61

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.