Northern Illinois @ Bowling Green: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Bowling Green · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F7 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Northern Illinois

3-2 · Power #74

▲ winner

Final

Bowling Green

2-3 · Power #75

final

Closing spread

BGSU -3.5

✓ NIU W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 24 pts

Model before kickoff

NIU 22–26 BGSU

✗ BGSU (61%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBGSU -2

CloseBGSU -3.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBGSU -2

1.5 → BGSU

CloseBGSU -3.5

1.5 pts toward Bowling Green

Total

Open47.5

▼ 1

Close46.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BGSU -2 · closed BGSU -3.5 · moved 1.5 toward BGSUmodel BGSU -5

model BGSU -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 48% (143 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (56 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBGSU -2

CloseBGSU -3.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BGSU as a 3.5-point home favorite against NIU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 9 went over the total.

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This game: NIU won 17–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 24 points stayed under 46.5, as in 1 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 49%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 3.3 against an average line of 4.3; 65.7 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TROY vs USA 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	31–24	W	O47.5
Very close	VT vs SYR 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & total	-3.5	36–41	L	O45.5
Very close	JMU vs USA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	31–23	W	O49.5
Very close	BOIS vs AFA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	27–19	W	O44.75
Very close	WVU vs OKST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	34–48	L	O48.5
Very close	NCSU vs MRSH 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	48–41	W	O44
Very close	FSU vs SYR 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-5.5	33–30	L	O50.25
Very close	COLO vs BAY 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	38–31	W	O52.5
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Very close	ILL vs NU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	43–45	L	O46.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU WWLWW	4-1	80%	2-0	2-0
BGSU WW–LL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: NIU away, as underdog; BGSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU OUOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
BGSU UO–OU	2-2	50%	2-3

Stayed under: it needed 34 in the 4th quarter and got 11. 54% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
BGSU	5-5 50%	5-4 56%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NIU−7.8 →−3.2▲ 4.6#82

BGSU−5.6 →−1.7▲ 3.9#75

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

NIU

Longer bar = better

BGSU

#59

Offense

Even

#60

#26

Defense

◀ NIU better

#86

−1.0 #124

Turnovers

BGSU better ▶

−0.6 #106

71 plays #25

Pace

◀ NIU faster

63 plays #96

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: NIU offense

	NIU off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.2 #75	25.4 #82	Even
Yards / play	5.98 #61	6.11 #106	NIU
PPA / play	+0.20 #48	+0.22 #112	NIU
Success rate	45% #53	39% #44	Even

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	BGSU off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	28.4 #73	19.2 #34	NIU
Yards / play	6.23 #47	4.64 #18	NIU
PPA / play	+0.18 #56	+0.03 #37	Even
Success rate	44% #65	35% #13	NIU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NIU scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	7.4 #51	9.0 #57	16.4 #56	3.8 #112	8.0 #42	11.8 #92
BGSU allowed	7.6 #108	5.0 #33	12.6 #74	4.2 #43	8.6 #114	12.8 #89

BGSU scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	8.8 #26	8.2 #70	17.0 #50	5.6 #80	5.8 #94	11.4 #100
NIU allowed	4.8 #61	3.8 #16	8.6 #30	5.2 #66	4.8 #44	10.0 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.