Massachusetts @ Northern Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Northern Illinois

Weather at kickoff70°F14 mphgusts 27DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Massachusetts

1-4 · Power #125

final

Final

Northern Illinois

2-2 · Power #74

▲ winner

Closing spread

NIU -13.5

✓ NIU W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

MASS 15–29 NIU

✓ NIU (85%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNIU -17

CloseNIU -13.5

Total46.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNIU -17

3.5 → MASS

CloseNIU -13.5

3.5 pts toward Massachusetts

Total

Open46.5

▼ 6

Close40.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NIU -17 · closed NIU -13.5 · moved 3.5 toward MASSmodel NIU -19

model NIU -19

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 83%, covered 46% (60 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNIU -17

CloseNIU -13.5

Total46.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NIU as a 13.5-point home favorite against MASS, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: NIU won 34–20; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 40.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Below normal · usually 52%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 11.4 against an average line of 14.5; 37.4 points a game (usually 55.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	M-OH vs AKR 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-17	19–0	W	U37.5
Close	TOL vs BGSU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	35–42	L	O46.5
Close	TOL vs BUFF 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar team ratings	-14.5	31–13	W	U47.25
Loose	UK vs VAN 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest	-17	21–24	L	U45.5
Loose	M-OH vs BUFF 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	23–10	W	U37
Loose	UCLA vs ASU 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & season form	-14	7–17	L	U45.5
Loose	M-OH vs BGSU 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & total	-7.5	27–0	W	U43
Loose	CIN vs NAVY 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & total	-18.5	20–10	L	U43.5
Loose	MIZ vs VAN 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation	-14	17–14	L	U49
Loose	ND vs BC 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-20	44–0	W	O42

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MASS LWLLW	2-3	40%	2-1	2-1
NIU WWLW	3-1	75%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: MASS away, as underdog; NIU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MASS UOUOU	2-3	40%	1-4
NIU OUOU	2-2	50%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 88 earlier overs in games with totals 36.5–44.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MASS	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
NIU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MASS−12.1 →−16.9▼ 4.8#126

NIU−7.8 →−2.6▲ 5.2#77

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

MASS

Longer bar = better

NIU

#115

Offense

NIU better ▶

#76

#70

Defense

NIU better ▶

#28

0.0 #68

Turnovers

◀ MASS better

−1.0 #121

73 plays #15

Pace

Even

73 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	MASS off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #118	19.0 #40	NIU
Yards / play	4.67 #124	4.27 #14	NIU
PPA / play	+0.06 #101	+0.02 #43	NIU
Success rate	37% #118	34% #13	NIU

When NIU has the ball

Even matchup

	NIU off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #89	30.8 #104	Even
Yards / play	5.91 #66	5.51 #78	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #56	+0.08 #73	Even
Success rate	41% #94	35% #26	MASS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MASS scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	2.8 #123	6.6 #97	9.4 #111	3.4 #118	6.2 #78	9.6 #113
NIU allowed	4.3 #61	3.3 #17	7.5 #20	6.5 #86	4.3 #44	10.8 #51

NIU scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	7.5 #47	11.3 #37	18.8 #36	3.3 #120	4.8 #107	8.0 #123
MASS allowed	4.2 #56	10.2 #110	14.4 #93	8.2 #113	7.6 #101	15.8 #113

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.