Temple @ UConn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at UConn

Weather at kickoff73°F9 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Temple

1-4 · Power #127

final

Final

UConn

3-2 · Power #80

▲ winner

Closing spread

CONN -17.5

✓ TEM W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

TEM 17–35 CONN

✓ CONN (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -13.5

CloseCONN -17.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCONN -13.5

4 → CONN

CloseCONN -17.5

4 pts toward UConn

Total

Open50.5

▼ 2

Close48.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CONN -13.5 · closed CONN -17.5 · moved 4 toward CONNmodel CONN -19

model CONN -19

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 51% (59 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (37 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -13.5

CloseCONN -17.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CONN as a 17.5-point home favorite against TEM, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: CONN won 29–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 48.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 88%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.1 against an average line of 17; 48.1 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	USA vs CMU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-16	30–34	L	O47.5
Close	SJSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-16.5	24–13	L	U48.5
Close	LIB vs SHSU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & season form	-21	21–16	L	U46.5
Close	UTSA vs UNLV 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-21.5	24–17	L	U55.5
Close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Close	BC vs CONN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-14.5	21–14	L	U49
Close	DUKE vs KU 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-16.25	52–33	W	O57.5
Close	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-18.5	55–3	W	O51
Close	SHSU vs NMSU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest	-15	31–11	W	U44.5
Close	USA vs ARST 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest	-14.5	21–14	L	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEM LLWWL	2-3	40%	0-2	2-3
CONN LWWWW	4-1	80%	3-0	2-0

Venue/role: TEM away, as underdog; CONN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEM UOUOO	3-2	60%	1-4
CONN OOOOO	5-0	100%	3-2

Went over in Q4. Of 241 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEM	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
CONN	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TEM 10–7 CONN TEM leads · 17 games since 1971 · CONN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEM−13.8 →−20.0▼ 6.2#131

CONN−11.5 →−4.8▲ 6.7#86

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

TEM

Longer bar = better

CONN

#122

Offense

CONN better ▶

#29

#121

Defense

CONN better ▶

#65

−2.2 #136

Turnovers

CONN better ▶

−0.6 #102

62 plays #113

Pace

CONN faster ▶

71 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEM has the ball

Advantage: CONN defense

	TEM off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	18.6 #121	22.0 #58	CONN
Yards / play	4.85 #122	5.28 #59	CONN
PPA / play	0.00 #118	+0.11 #85	CONN
Success rate	34% #125	39% #59	CONN

When CONN has the ball

Advantage: CONN offense

	CONN off	TEM def	Edge
Points / game	37.2 #23	37.6 #130	CONN
Yards / play	6.52 #33	6.15 #106	CONN
PPA / play	+0.27 #25	+0.29 #131	CONN
Success rate	47% #34	47% #117	CONN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TEM scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEM scored	0.6 #133	5.4 #108	6.0 #131	4.6 #98	8.0 #45	12.6 #77
CONN allowed	5.6 #80	4.4 #31	10.0 #50	4.0 #38	8.0 #105	12.0 #72

CONN scoring against the TEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	9.6 #22	11.0 #39	20.6 #26	10.4 #13	6.2 #82	16.6 #35
TEM allowed	9.4 #124	13.2 #129	22.6 #132	7.8 #109	7.2 #95	15.0 #107

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.