Buffalo @ UConn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at UConn

Weather at kickoff72°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Buffalo

3-1 · Power #105

final

Final

UConn

2-2 · Power #80

▲ winner

Closing spread

CONN -5.5

✓ CONN W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

BUFF 20–26 CONN

✓ CONN (66%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -3.5

CloseCONN -5.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCONN -3.5

2 → CONN

CloseCONN -5.5

2 pts toward UConn

Total

Open46.5

▼ 2

Close44.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CONN -3.5 · closed CONN -5.5 · moved 2 toward CONNmodel CONN -6.5

model CONN -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 51% (57 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (46 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -3.5

CloseCONN -5.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CONN as a 5.5-point home favorite against BUFF, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CONN won 47–3; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 50 points went over 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.3 against an average line of 4.8; 41.3 points a game (usually 53). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTEP vs ODU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	28–21	W	O48.5
Very close	MTSU vs ODU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	17–24	L	U48.5
Close	TROY vs USM 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation	-7	27–10	W	U44
Close	UNLV vs WYO 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	34–14	W	U48.25
Close	OHIO vs M-OH 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	16–30	L	O39
Close	TROY vs USA 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	31–24	W	O47.5
Close	NMSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	34–17	W	O49.5
Close	TXST vs ARST 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	16–13	L	U50
Close	USA vs TROY 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-3	6–10	L	U47
Close	RICE vs ECU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	24–17	W	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUFF WLWW	3-1	75%	1-1	1-1
CONN LWWW	3-1	75%	2-0	1-0

Venue/role: BUFF away, as underdog; CONN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUFF UUUO	1-3	25%	3-1
CONN OOOO	4-0	100%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 171 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUFF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	1-9 10%
CONN	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUFF−12.2 →−11.9▲ 0.3#113

CONN−11.5 →−8.2▲ 3.3#100

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

BUFF

Longer bar = better

CONN

#118

Offense

CONN better ▶

#39

#48

Defense

◀ BUFF better

#97

+0.5 #54

Turnovers

◀ BUFF better

−1.0 #110

59 plays #123

Pace

CONN faster ▶

70 plays #39

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: CONN defense

	BUFF off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #111	26.8 #89	CONN
Yards / play	4.53 #126	5.78 #94	CONN
PPA / play	+0.05 #104	+0.18 #103	Even
Success rate	32% #131	43% #100	CONN

When CONN has the ball

Even matchup

	CONN off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #39	18.5 #43	Even
Yards / play	6.44 #44	4.34 #22	BUFF
PPA / play	+0.27 #30	+0.04 #60	CONN
Success rate	47% #41	39% #66	CONN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BUFF scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	5.0 #84	2.3 #129	7.3 #126	7.8 #52	6.0 #82	13.8 #67
CONN allowed	7.0 #100	4.8 #34	11.8 #73	5.0 #57	10.0 #123	15.0 #108

CONN scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	9.5 #29	10.5 #47	20.0 #34	9.5 #17	5.3 #94	14.8 #58
BUFF allowed	2.5 #32	7.8 #82	10.3 #58	3.3 #29	5.0 #60	8.3 #35

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.