Florida Atlantic @ UConn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at UConn

Weather at kickoff61°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Florida Atlantic

1-2 · Power #118

final

Final

UConn

1-2 · Power #80

▲ winner

Closing spread

FAU -0.5

✓ CONN W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

FAU 24–24 CONN

✗ FAU (51%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFAU -2.5

CloseFAU -0.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFAU -2.5

2 → CONN

CloseFAU -0.5

2 pts toward UConn

Total

Open46.5

▼ 1

Close45.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FAU -2.5 · closed FAU -0.5 · moved 2 toward CONNmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 52%, covered 48% (48 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 42% (38 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFAU -2.5

CloseFAU -0.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FAU as a 0.5-point road favorite at CONN, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: CONN won 48–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 45.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.3 against an average line of 2.8; 40.7 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	RICE @ CLT 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-1	28–7	W	U46.5
Close	UL @ USM 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar total & season form	-2.5	24–39	L	O42.75
Close	USM @ ULM 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-3	20–10	W	U50
Close	MRSH @ CCU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	6–34	L	U47
Close	NIU @ AKR 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-4	55–14	W	O42.5
Close	USM @ TXST 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	20–14	W	U43
Close	BALL @ EMU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-1	38–31	W	O55
Close	NAVY @ CLT 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total	-3	14–0	W	U44.5
Close	ISU @ OHIO 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-2	7–10	L	U41.75
Close	OHIO @ NIU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	13–23	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FAU WLW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1
CONN LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: FAU away, as favorite; CONN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FAU UUO	1-2	33%	1-2
CONN OOO	3-0	100%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 183 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FAU	3-7 30%	4-5-1 44%	4-6 40%
CONN	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

FAU 0–3 CONN CONN leads · 3 games since 2002 · CONN has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FAU−6.9 →−9.1▼ 2.2#101

CONN−11.5 →−11.4▲ 0.1#114

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

FAU

Longer bar = better

CONN

#120

Offense

CONN better ▶

#57

#64

Defense

◀ FAU better

#104

+2.0 #9

Turnovers

◀ FAU better

−1.3 #122

68 plays #47

Pace

◀ FAU faster

66 plays #71

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FAU has the ball

Even matchup

	FAU off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #118	31.0 #110	Even
Yards / play	4.43 #127	5.75 #92	CONN
PPA / play	−0.02 #117	+0.19 #103	Even
Success rate	37% #116	45% #112	Even

When CONN has the ball

Even matchup

	CONN off	FAU def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #69	20.0 #60	Even
Yards / play	6.34 #53	6.07 #105	CONN
PPA / play	+0.25 #48	−0.13 #17	FAU
Success rate	45% #56	40% #73	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 129 FBS teams

FAU scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FAU scored	2.3 #117	9.0 #61	11.3 #95	7.0 #61	0.0 #127	7.0 #118
CONN allowed	9.3 #112	6.3 #56	15.7 #95	4.3 #52	11.0 #124	15.3 #110

CONN scoring against the FAU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	11.7 #13	9.3 #57	21.0 #30	9.3 #27	0.0 #127	9.3 #106
FAU allowed	7.7 #105	4.7 #34	12.3 #76	3.3 #33	4.3 #52	7.7 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.