Memphis @ Navy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Navy · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F6 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Memphis

3-0 · Power #56

final

Final

Navy

2-0 · Power #61

▲ winner

Closing spread

MEM -8.5

✓ NAVY W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 100 pts

Model before kickoff

MEM 30–20 NAVY

✗ MEM (76%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -11

CloseMEM -8.5

Total50.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMEM -11

2.5 → NAVY

CloseMEM -8.5

2.5 pts toward Navy

Total

Open50.5

▼ 4

Close46.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MEM -11 · closed MEM -8.5 · moved 2.5 toward NAVYmodel MEM -16

model MEM -16

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–10.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 59% (87 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 36% (33 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -11

CloseMEM -8.5

Total50.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like MEM as an 8.5-point road favorite at NAVY, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: NAVY won 56–44 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 2 similar games. 100 points went over 46.5, as in 1 of 2.

Favorite won

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 9.5 against an average line of 6.3; 40.5 points a game (usually 54). When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	ORST @ SDSU 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation	-5.5	21–0	W	U54
Loose	ISU @ BAY 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & total	-7	29–31	L	O46

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	2-0
NAVY LW	1-1	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: MEM away, as favorite; NAVY home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM UUU	0-3	0%	3-0
NAVY OO	2-0	100%	2-0

Went over in Q3. Of 193 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEM	9-1 90%	6-3-1 67%	7-3 70%
NAVY	6-4 60%	4-4-1 50%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MEM 1–0 NAVY MEM leads · 1 game since 2023 · MEM has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2023	Navy 24 @ Memphis 28	MEM -12.5	NAVY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MEM+2.0 →+7.9▲ 5.9#26

NAVY−17.5 →−9.5▲ 8.0#104

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

MEM

Longer bar = better

NAVY

#63

Offense

NAVY better ▶

#24

#21

Defense

Even

#31

+2.0 #11

Turnovers

Even

+1.5 #14

62 plays #103

Pace

NAVY faster ▶

66 plays #64

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: NAVY defense

	MEM off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #54	16.0 #43	Even
Yards / play	5.78 #86	4.84 #53	NAVY
PPA / play	+0.24 #51	−0.12 #22	NAVY
Success rate	44% #61	30% #7	NAVY

When NAVY has the ball

Even matchup

	NAVY off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	43.5 #17	9.7 #17	Even
Yards / play	6.41 #46	3.87 #15	MEM
PPA / play	+0.40 #15	−0.16 #11	Even
Success rate	52% #19	35% #39	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 121 FBS teams

MEM scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	5.7 #70	16.0 #8	21.7 #24	6.7 #64	4.3 #94	11.0 #84
NAVY allowed	3.5	1.5	5.0	3.5	7.5	11.0

NAVY scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	7.5	18.0	25.5	11.0	7.0	18.0
MEM allowed	0.0 #1	3.3 #22	3.3 #7	3.0 #28	3.3 #33	6.3 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.