Oregon State @ San Diego State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at San Diego State

Weather at kickoff80°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Oregon State

1-0 · Power #98

▲ winner

Final

San Diego State

1-0 · Power #122

final

Closing spread

ORST -5.5

✓ ORST W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 21 pts

Model before kickoff

ORST 29–23 SDSU

✓ ORST (67%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORST -4.5

CloseORST -5.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORST -4.5

1 → ORST

CloseORST -5.5

1 pt toward Oregon State

Total

Open55.5

▼ 1

Close54.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORST -4.5 · closed ORST -5.5 · moved 1 toward ORSTmodel ORST -9

model ORST -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 51% (53 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORST -4.5

CloseORST -5.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORST as a 5.5-point road favorite at SDSU, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: ORST won 21–0; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 21 points stayed under 54.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.8 against an average line of 5.5; 50 points a game (usually 53.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WIS @ WSU 2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	22–31	L	U58
Close	ISU @ BAY 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	29–31	L	O46
Close	LIB @ SYR 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	21–24	L	U54
Close	CLEM @ SYR 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-7	31–14	W	U53
Close	ND @ DUKE 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	21–14	W	U52.5
Loose	TEX @ ARK 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6	21–40	L	O57.5
Loose	ISU @ KU 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	11–14	L	U59
Loose	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & total	-3	16–31	L	U53
Loose	AUB @ CAL 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & total	-5	14–10	L	U55.5
Loose	MEM @ ARST 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	55–50	L	O64.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORST L	0-1	0%	—	0-1
SDSU –	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: ORST away, as favorite; SDSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORST U	0-1	0%	1-0
SDSU –	0-0	—	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 48 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 51% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORST	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	3-6 33%
SDSU	3-7 30%	6-3 67%	4-4-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ORST 6–2 SDSU ORST leads · 8 games since 1972 · ORST has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 16 2023	San Diego State 9 @ Oregon State 26	ORST -24.5	SDSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORST+7.8 →+5.2▼ 2.6#36

SDSU−8.3 →−5.3▲ 3.0#92

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

ORST

Longer bar = better

SDSU

#28

Offense

◀ ORST better

#54

#76

Defense

SDSU better ▶

#33

+1.0 #43

Turnovers

SDSU better ▶

+3.0 #4

72 plays #34

Pace

Even

73 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORST has the ball

Even matchup

	ORST off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #41	14.0 #44	Even
Yards / play	7.08 #34	3.05 #8	SDSU
PPA / play	+0.37 #29	−0.36 #3	SDSU
Success rate	61% #6	38% #77	ORST

When SDSU has the ball

Advantage: SDSU offense

	SDSU off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	45.0 #20	15.0 #51	SDSU
Yards / play	6.41 #56	5.10 #75	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #56	+0.07 #83	SDSU
Success rate	41% #83	42% #94	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.