Mississippi State @ Arizona State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Arizona State

Weather at kickoff94°F11 mphgusts 32DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Mississippi State

1-0 · Power #72

final

Final

Arizona State

1-0 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

ASU -6.5

✓ ASU W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

MSST 19–25 ASU

✓ ASU (67%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenASU -5

CloseASU -6.5

Total58.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenASU -5

1.5 → ASU

CloseASU -6.5

1.5 pts toward Arizona State

Total

Open58.5

▼ 1

Close57.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ASU -5 · closed ASU -6.5 · moved 1.5 toward ASUmodel ASU -4.5

model ASU -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 52% (74 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenASU -5

CloseASU -6.5

Total58.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 4 games most like ASU as a 6.5-point home favorite against MSST, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: ASU won 30–23; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 4 similar games. 53 points stayed under 57.5, as in 1 of 4.

Favorite won

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

2 of 450%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3.5 against an average line of 4.6; 58.5 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 4 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ARMY vs WKU 2021 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation	-6	38–35	L	O52
Loose	WASH vs MSU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	39–28	W	O56.5
Loose	BYU vs BAY 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	26–20	W	U55
Loose	PITT vs CIN 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	21–27	L	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSST W	1-0	100%	—	—
ASU W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: MSST away, as underdog; ASU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSST O	1-0	100%	1-0
ASU O	1-0	100%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 52% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSST	4-6 40%	3-6-1 33%	6-3-1 67%
ASU	3-7 30%	6-3-1 67%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSST+1.2 →+1.7▲ 0.5#56

ASU−3.3 →+1.9▲ 5.2#55

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

MSST

Longer bar = better

ASU

#21

Offense

Even

#23

#34

Defense

ASU better ▶

+1.0 #35

Turnovers

ASU better ▶

+3.0 #5

57 plays #124

Pace

ASU faster ▶

71 plays #36

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSST has the ball

Even matchup

	MSST off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	56.0 #6	7.0 #13	Even
Yards / play	7.89 #16	2.27 #1	Even
PPA / play	+0.54 #8	−0.57 #1	Even
Success rate	46% #53	16% #1	ASU

When ASU has the ball

Even matchup

	ASU off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	48.0 #17	7.0 #15	Even
Yards / play	7.03 #35	3.88 #23	Even
PPA / play	+0.39 #21	−0.06 #44	ASU
Success rate	54% #19	35% #55	ASU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.