Baylor @ Utah: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Utah

Weather at kickoff92°F7 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Baylor

1-0 · Power #39

final

Final

Utah

1-0 · Power #49

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTAH -14.5

✓ BAY W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

BAY 16–31 UTAH

✓ UTAH (85%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTAH -17

CloseUTAH -14.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTAH -17

2.5 → BAY

CloseUTAH -14.5

2.5 pts toward Baylor

Total

Open53.5

▼ 1

Close52.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTAH -17 · closed UTAH -14.5 · moved 2.5 toward BAYmodel UTAH -15.5

model UTAH -15.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 87%, covered 55% (47 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTAH -17

CloseUTAH -14.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 7 games most like UTAH as a 14.5-point home favorite against BAY, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: UTAH won 23–12; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 7 similar games. 35 points stayed under 52.5, as in 5 of 7.

Favorite won

4 of 757%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

2 of 633%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

2 of 729%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 7 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.9 against an average line of 12.8; 46.3 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 7 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU vs TULN 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	10–17	L	U49
Close	KSU vs TROY 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & total	-15	42–13	W	O50
Loose	MSST vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-9	31–24	L	U60
Loose	SYR vs ARMY 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar total & rest	-13	29–16	P	U50.5
Loose	MINN vs PUR 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & rest	-9	10–20	L	U53
Loose	OU vs KSU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar total & rest	-13.5	34–41	L	O53
Loose	UGA vs ARK 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-16.5	37–0	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAY W	1-0	100%	—	—
UTAH W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: BAY away, as underdog; UTAH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAY U	0-1	0%	1-0
UTAH U	0-1	0%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAY	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-4 56%
UTAH	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BAY 0–1 UTAH UTAH leads · 1 game since 2023 · UTAH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 9 2023	Utah 20 @ Baylor 13	UTAH -7	P

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAY−3.0 →−1.0▲ 2.0#72

UTAH+6.4 →+8.0▲ 1.6#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

BAY

Longer bar = better

UTAH

#63

Offense

UTAH better ▶

#18

#20

Defense

Even

#20

−1.0 #112

Turnovers

UTAH better ▶

−1.0 #97

71 plays #42

Pace

◀ BAY faster

65 plays #78

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: UTAH defense

	BAY off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	45.0 #37	0.0 #1	UTAH
Yards / play	6.23 #65	2.94 #16	UTAH
PPA / play	+0.25 #63	−0.19 #42	UTAH
Success rate	42% #86	24% #20	UTAH

When UTAH has the ball

Even matchup

	UTAH off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	49.0 #27	3.0 #26	Even
Yards / play	7.89 #25	3.23 #24	Even
PPA / play	+0.61 #9	−0.25 #25	Even
Success rate	61% #11	18% #6	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.