Sam Houston @ UCF: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 7:02 PM EDTWeek 2 · at UCF

Weather at kickoff79°F2 mphgusts 7Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Sam Houston

1-0 · Power #93

final

Final

UCF

1-0 · Power #37

▲ winner

Closing spread

UCF -21.5

✓ UCF W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

SHSU 14–36 UCF

✓ UCF (94%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCF -24

CloseUCF -21.5

Total58.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUCF -24

2.5 → SHSU

CloseUCF -21.5

2.5 pts toward Sam Houston

Total

Open58.5

▼ 5

Close53.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UCF -24 · closed UCF -21.5 · moved 2.5 toward SHSUmodel UCF -21.5 matches the line

model UCF -21.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 19.5–23.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 43% (56 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCF -24

CloseUCF -21.5

Total58.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like UCF as a 21.5-point home favorite against SHSU, the favorite won 3, covered 1, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: UCF won 45–14; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 3 similar games. 59 points went over 53.5, as in 1 of 3.

Favorite won

3 of 3100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 12.7 against an average line of 20.4; 55.3 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	WASH vs CAL 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-20.5	59–32	W	O55.5
Loose	MICH vs RUTG 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest	-20.25	20–13	L	U50
Loose	SC vs ODU 2024 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & total	-20.5	23–19	L	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SHSU W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0
UCF W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: SHSU away, as underdog; UCF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SHSU U	0-1	0%	1-0
UCF O	1-0	100%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 198 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SHSU	4-6 40%	5-4-1 56%	5-4 56%
UCF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SHSU−10.8 →−7.3▲ 3.5#101

UCF+6.5 →+9.5▲ 3.0#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

SHSU

Longer bar = better

UCF

#86

Offense

UCF better ▶

#42

#50

Defense

UCF better ▶

#12

+2.0 #21

Turnovers

◀ SHSU better

0.0 #63

73 plays #29

Pace

Even

76 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SHSU has the ball

Advantage: UCF defense

	SHSU off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #70	3.0 #14	UCF
Yards / play	5.58 #87	2.84 #13	UCF
PPA / play	+0.18 #75	−0.37 #15	UCF
Success rate	36% #110	17% #4	UCF

When UCF has the ball

Even matchup

	UCF off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	57.0 #11	14.0 #63	UCF
Yards / play	8.41 #18	4.42 #61	UCF
PPA / play	+0.17 #78	−0.14 #47	SHSU
Success rate	47% #61	27% #28	SHSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.