Middle Tennessee @ Ole Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 4:15 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Ole Miss

Weather at kickoff82°F10 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Middle Tennessee

1-0 · Power #129

final

Final

Ole Miss

1-0 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

MISS -42.5

✓ MISS W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

MTSU 7–47 MISS

✓ MISS (100%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -42

CloseMISS -42.5

Total62.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMISS -42

0.5 → MISS

CloseMISS -42.5

0.5 pts toward Ole Miss

Total

Open62.5

▼ 2

Close60.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MISS -42 · closed MISS -42.5 · moved 0.5 toward MISSmodel MISS -32.5

model MISS -32.5

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -42

CloseMISS -42.5

Total62.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like MISS as a 42.5-point home favorite against MTSU, the favorite won 2, covered 2, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 52–3; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 2 similar games. 55 points stayed under 60.5, as in 1 of 2.

Favorite won

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 54%

Went over

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 43%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 50 against an average line of 40.5; 67 points a game (usually 58.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	OU vs TEM 2024 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation	-43	51–3	W	U57.5
Loose	USC vs NEV 2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & total	-38	66–14	W	O63.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MTSU –	0-0	—	—	—
MISS W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: MTSU away, as underdog; MISS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MTSU –	0-0	—	1-0
MISS O	1-0	100%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 13 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 46% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MTSU	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	5-4 56%
MISS	9-1 90%	5-3-2 63%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MTSU−7.5 →−10.9▼ 3.4#117

MISS+12.8 →+16.1▲ 3.3#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

MTSU

Longer bar = better

MISS

#94

Offense

MISS better ▶

#89

Defense

MISS better ▶

#12

0.0 #84

Turnovers

MISS better ▶

+1.0 #32

68 plays #61

Pace

MISS faster ▶

82 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MTSU has the ball

Advantage: MISS defense

	MTSU off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #71	0.0 #8	MISS
Yards / play	4.82 #102	2.69 #9	MISS
PPA / play	+0.08 #90	−0.24 #29	MISS
Success rate	36% #113	13% #2	MISS

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: MISS offense

	MISS off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	76.0 #1	25.0 #89	MISS
Yards / play	9.41 #10	5.25 #82	MISS
PPA / play	+0.90 #4	+0.12 #88	MISS
Success rate	62% #9	43% #96	MISS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.