Buffalo @ Missouri: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Missouri

Weather at kickoff70°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Buffalo

1-0 · Power #105

final

Final

Missouri

1-0 · Power #23

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIZ -34.5

✓ MIZ W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

BUFF 7–41 MIZ

✓ MIZ (99%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -34.5

CloseMIZ -34.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIZ -34.5

no move

CloseMIZ -34.5

No change since the open

Total

Open52.5

▲ 1

Close53.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIZ -34.5 · unchangedmodel MIZ -33

model MIZ -33

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 32.5–36.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 50% (42 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -34.5

CloseMIZ -34.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like MIZ as a 34.5-point home favorite against BUFF, the favorite won 2, covered 0, and 0 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MIZ won 38–0; the favorite covered, as in 0 of the 2 similar games. 38 points stayed under 53.5, as in 2 of 2.

Favorite won

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 98%

Favorite covered

0 of 20%

Normal range · usually 55%

Went over

0 of 20%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 27.5 against an average line of 36.6; 44.5 points a game (usually 56). When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	MICH vs UNLV 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-38	35–7	L	U57.5
Loose	TEX vs RICE 2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread	-35.25	37–10	L	U59

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUFF W	1-0	100%	—	—
MIZ W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: BUFF away, as underdog; MIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUFF U	0-1	0%	1-0
MIZ U	0-1	0%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 53% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUFF	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	1-8 11%
MIZ	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUFF−12.2 →−12.8▼ 0.6#122

MIZ+14.2 →+14.4▲ 0.2#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

BUFF

Longer bar = better

MIZ

#71

Offense

MIZ better ▶

#48

#44

Defense

MIZ better ▶

+1.0 #37

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #25

70 plays #47

Pace

MIZ faster ▶

78 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: MIZ defense

	BUFF off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #76	0.0 #2	MIZ
Yards / play	5.76 #84	1.70 #1	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.26 #62	−0.71 #3	MIZ
Success rate	46% #63	22% #13	MIZ

When MIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	MIZ off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	51.0 #23	13.0 #53	MIZ
Yards / play	6.27 #63	3.48 #29	BUFF
PPA / play	+0.24 #65	−0.17 #43	BUFF
Success rate	52% #40	33% #50	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.