Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Ball State
Closing spread
BALL -2.5
✓ BALL W
Total
50.5
▲ Over · 76 pts
Model before kickoff
MOST 21–25 BALL
✓ BALL (63%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenBALL -2.5
CloseBALL -2.5
Total52.5 → 50.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBALL -2.5
no move
CloseBALL -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open52.5
▼ 2
Close50.5
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BALL -2.5 · unchangedmodel BALL -12.5
model BALL -12.5
Opened 52.5 · closed 50.5 · moved 2 downmodel 46
model 46
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 49% (108 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenBALL -2.5
CloseBALL -2.5
Total52.5 → 50.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
BALL as a 2.5-point home favorite against MOST, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.
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This game: BALL won 42–34; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 76 points went over 50.5, as in 7 of 10.
Favorite won
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 57%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 47%
Went over
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 47%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0 against an average line of 4.5; 49.8 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & spread |
-3.5 | 23–31 | L | O50 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total |
-3.5 | 14–27 | L | U50 |
| Close |  CSU vs  HAW2022 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings |
-6 | 17–13 | L | U46 |
| Close |  WMU vs  EMU2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread |
-4.5 | 23–45 | L | O55.5 |
| Close |  USA vs  GASO2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total |
-2.5 | 41–14 | W | O49.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & team ratings |
-6.5 | 34–17 | W | O49.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 1 · close · similar spread & situation |
-3 | 20–13 | W | U49 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & total |
-3.5 | 31–34 | L | O48.5 |
| Close |  UTEP vs  ODU2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total |
-5.5 | 28–21 | W | O48.5 |
| Close |  CMU vs  BGSU2022 · Week 8 · close |
-6 | 18–34 | L | O50.5 |
MTSU
NEV
NMSU
FIU
SDSU
OHIO
MASS
UNMHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved down 2
52.5 → 50.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Missouri State have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 203 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 MOSTlast 1 | 0-1 0% | 1-0 100% | 1-0 100% |
| BALL | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% | 3-6 33% |
Recent meetings
The series
MOST 0–1 BALL
BALL leads · 1 game since 2024 · BALL has won the last meeting
All-time series from CollegeFootballData.
Matchup
Power ratings week by week, before kickoff
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
MOST−19.8 →−19.8–
BALL−11.2 →−11.2–#118
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
BALL +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
64° · 14 mph
gusts 28 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
MOST1st game
BALL1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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NIU @ 
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WASH
TOL
BUFF @ 
MIZ
OSU
BYU @ 
SMU