Northern Illinois @ Notre Dame: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Notre Dame

Weather at kickoff61°F15 mphgusts 30DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Northern Illinois

1-0 · Power #74

▲ winner

Final

Notre Dame

1-0 · Power #4

final

Closing spread

ND -28.5

✓ NIU W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

NIU 8–37 ND

✗ ND (98%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -30

CloseND -28.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -30

1.5 → NIU

CloseND -28.5

1.5 pts toward Northern Illinois

Total

Open46.5

no move

Close46.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -30 · closed ND -28.5 · moved 1.5 toward NIUmodel ND -29.5

model ND -29.5

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -30

CloseND -28.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like ND as a 28.5-point home favorite against NIU, the favorite won 2, covered 2, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: NIU won 16–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 0 of the 2 similar games. 30 points stayed under 46.5, as in 0 of 2.

Favorite won

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 96%

Favorite covered

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 56%

Went over

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 61%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 51 against an average line of 26.8; 71 points a game (usually 57.9). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	FSU vs USM 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-31	66–13	W	O54
Loose	UGA vs UAB 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar total	-22.5	56–7	W	O44

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU W	1-0	100%	—	—
ND W	1-0	100%	—	—

Venue/role: NIU away, as underdog; ND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU O	1-0	100%	1-0
ND U	0-1	0%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 53% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-5 44%
ND	7-3 70%	7-2-1 78%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NIU−7.8 →−5.1▲ 2.7#90

ND+18.9 →+19.1▲ 0.2#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

NIU

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ NIU better

#100

#56

Defense

Even

#50

−1.0 #108

Turnovers

ND better ▶

+2.0 #12

70 plays #45

Pace

◀ NIU faster

64 plays #82

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: NIU offense

	NIU off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	54.0 #16	13.0 #48	NIU
Yards / play	10.09 #5	3.62 #31	NIU
PPA / play	+0.88 #5	−0.20 #41	NIU
Success rate	79% #2	40% #80	NIU

When ND has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	ND off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #99	15.0 #65	NIU
Yards / play	5.56 #88	5.14 #81	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #88	−0.09 #56	NIU
Success rate	30% #125	26% #22	NIU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.