South Alabama @ Ohio: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Ohio

Weather at kickoff66°F10 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

South Alabama

0-1 · Power #66

final

Final

Ohio

0-1 · Power #65

▲ winner

Closing spread

USA -1.5

✓ OHIO W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

USA 27–25 OHIO

✗ USA (55%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSA -1

CloseUSA -1.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSA -1

0.5 → USA

CloseUSA -1.5

0.5 pts toward South Alabama

Total

Open54.5

▲ 1

Close55.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USA -1 · closed USA -1.5 · moved 0.5 toward USAmodel USA -2.5

model USA -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 51% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSA -1

CloseUSA -1.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USA as a 1.5-point road favorite at OHIO, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: OHIO won 27–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 55.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.1 against an average line of 3.7; 47.1 points a game (usually 53.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UTSA @ ARMY 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	41–38	W	O54
Close	LT @ RICE 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	31–35	L	O52.5
Close	TOL @ BALL 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	22–12	W	U56.5
Close	TLSA @ TULN 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	20–13	W	U55.5
Close	CMU @ M-OH 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-1.75	17–28	L	U56
Close	NEB @ RUTG 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	14–13	L	U50.5
Close	BYU @ STAN 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	35–26	W	O57.5
Close	COLO @ ASU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest	-3	27–24	P	U58.5
Close	GAST @ GASO 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar total	-6	21–14	W	U55
Close	HAW @ UNLV 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest	-3.5	13–27	L	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USA L	0-1	0%	—	0-1
OHIO W	1-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: USA away, as favorite; OHIO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA O	1-0	100%	0-1
OHIO O	1-0	100%	0-1

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 51% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USA	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-4 56%
OHIO	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USA+0.8 →−2.1▼ 2.9#74

OHIO−3.6 →−7.3▼ 3.7#100

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

USA

Longer bar = better

OHIO

#44

Offense

◀ USA better

#82

#125

Defense

Even

#118

0.0 #86

Turnovers

OHIO better ▶

0.0 #61

82 plays #10

Pace

◀ USA faster

69 plays #50

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USA has the ball

Advantage: USA offense

	USA off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #57	38.0 #117	USA
Yards / play	7.10 #45	6.86 #114	USA
PPA / play	+0.44 #29	+0.42 #129	USA
Success rate	52% #44	49% #112	USA

When OHIO has the ball

Advantage: OHIO offense

	OHIO off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #102	52.0 #131	OHIO
Yards / play	6.42 #60	7.24 #123	OHIO
PPA / play	+0.06 #94	+0.36 #124	OHIO
Success rate	45% #72	53% #122	OHIO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.