Eastern Michigan @ Washington: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Washington

Weather at kickoff77°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Eastern Michigan

1-0 · Power #120

final

Final

Washington

1-0 · Power #31

▲ winner

Closing spread

WASH -25.5

✓ EMU W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

EMU 12–38 WASH

✓ WASH (97%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWASH -23.5

CloseWASH -25.5

Total47.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWASH -23.5

2 → WASH

CloseWASH -25.5

2 pts toward Washington

Total

Open47.5

▲ 2

Close49.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WASH -23.5 · closed WASH -25.5 · moved 2 toward WASHmodel WASH -29.5

model WASH -29.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 23.5–27.5 since 2023: won 92%, covered 50% (53 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWASH -23.5

CloseWASH -25.5

Total47.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WASH as a 25.5-point home favorite against EMU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: WASH won 30–9; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 49.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 55%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 24 against an average line of 26.4; 59 points a game (usually 55.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIA vs MTSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-25.5	31–45	L	O53.5
Close	MICH vs NIU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-27.5	63–10	W	O55
Close	FSU vs UL 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-25	49–17	W	O52.5
Loose	LIB vs ODU 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-27.5	45–17	W	O53
Loose	MD vs CLT 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-24.5	38–20	L	O50
Loose	UCF vs TEM 2022 · Week 7 · loose	-23.5	70–13	W	O46.5
Loose	AUB vs NMSU 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & spread	-25	10–31	L	U48.5
Loose	ORST vs SDSU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-24.5	26–9	L	U48.5
Loose	CIN vs TEM 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-30	52–3	W	O52.5
Loose	TEX vs WYO 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-31	31–10	L	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EMU W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0
WASH W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: EMU away, as underdog; WASH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
EMU U	0-1	0%	1-0
WASH U	0-1	0%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EMU	5-5 50%	6-3-1 67%	6-3 67%
WASH	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	4-5-1 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

EMU−13.3 →−11.3▲ 2.0#119

WASH+12.9 →+11.5▼ 1.4#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

EMU

Longer bar = better

WASH

#80

Offense

WASH better ▶

#44

#76

Defense

WASH better ▶

#36

0.0 #68

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #75

63 plays #93

Pace

WASH faster ▶

67 plays #63

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When EMU has the ball

Advantage: WASH defense

	EMU off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #81	3.0 #21	WASH
Yards / play	5.95 #74	3.67 #34	WASH
PPA / play	+0.16 #80	−0.05 #63	Even
Success rate	42% #85	27% #26	WASH

When WASH has the ball

Advantage: WASH offense

	WASH off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #60	14.0 #57	Even
Yards / play	7.19 #41	4.63 #65	WASH
PPA / play	+0.39 #37	+0.06 #76	WASH
Success rate	53% #36	44% #104	WASH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.