Michigan State @ Maryland: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Maryland · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F4 mphgusts 20Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Michigan State

1-0 · Power #70

▲ winner

Final

Maryland

1-0 · Power #62

final

Closing spread

MD -7.5

✓ MSU W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

MSU 20–29 MD

✗ MD (74%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMD -9

CloseMD -7.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMD -9

1.5 → MSU

CloseMD -7.5

1.5 pts toward Michigan State

Total

Open46.5

▼ 2

Close44.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MD -9 · closed MD -7.5 · moved 1.5 toward MSUmodel MD -15

model MD -15

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 53% (61 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMD -9

CloseMD -7.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MD as a 7.5-point home favorite against MSU, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MSU won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.5 against an average line of 9.2; 49.1 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ARK vs BYU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-8.25	31–38	L	O47.75
Close	RUTG vs TEM 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	36–7	W	U43.5
Loose	WKU vs TROY 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-5	27–34	L	O55
Loose	MINN vs PUR 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-9	10–20	L	U53
Loose	SYR vs ARMY 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest	-13	29–16	P	U50.5
Loose	TULN vs USM 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-11.75	24–27	L	O48.5
Loose	ARMY vs M-OH 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7.5	23–10	W	U48.75
Loose	TCU vs CAL 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & total	-11.5	34–32	L	O46.5
Loose	MEM vs NAVY 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation	-12.25	28–24	L	O46.75
Loose	MICH vs WASH 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & total	-6.5	31–10	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSU L	0-1	0%	—	—
MD W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: MSU away, as underdog; MD home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSU U	0-1	0%	1-0
MD O	1-0	100%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 142 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSU	3-7 30%	3-6-1 33%	4-6 40%
MD	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MSU 0–1 MD MD leads · 1 game since 2023 · MD has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 23 2023	Maryland 31 @ Michigan State 9	MD -7	MD W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSU−3.8 →−2.9▲ 0.9#77

MD+6.6 →+8.6▲ 2.0#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

MSU

Longer bar = better

#118

Offense

MD better ▶

#22

#27

Defense

◀ MSU better

#57

−1.0 #101

Turnovers

MD better ▶

+3.0 #8

61 plays #100

Pace

MD faster ▶

83 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: MD defense

	MSU off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	16.0 #111	7.0 #35	MD
Yards / play	4.80 #103	4.92 #72	MD
PPA / play	−0.32 #128	−0.11 #52	MD
Success rate	26% #128	37% #67	MD

When MD has the ball

Even matchup

	MD off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	50.0 #25	10.0 #41	Even
Yards / play	7.58 #29	3.44 #27	Even
PPA / play	+0.56 #16	−0.37 #14	Even
Success rate	58% #17	26% #24	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.