Maryland @ Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Virginia

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Maryland

1-1 · Power #62

▲ winner

Final

Virginia

2-0 · Power #77

final

Closing spread

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Total

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Model before kickoff

MD 31–25 UVA

✓ MD (69%) won

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MD WL	1-1	50%	—	—
UVA –L	0-1	0%	—	—

Venue/role: MD away; UVA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MD OO	2-0	100%	1-1
UVA –O	1-0	100%	2-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MD	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	7-2 78%
UVA	5-5 50%	6-3 67%	6-1-2 86%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MD 1–0 UVA MD leads · 1 game since 2023 · MD has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 15 2023	Virginia 14 @ Maryland 42	MD -16.5	MD W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MD+6.6 →+5.5▼ 1.1#36

UVA−2.9 →−3.2▼ 0.3#79

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

UVA

#30

Offense

◀ MD better

#47

#74

Defense

Even

#80

+2.5 #4

Turnovers

◀ MD better

−0.5 #97

74 plays #14

Pace

◀ MD faster

67 plays #56

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MD has the ball

Advantage: MD offense

	MD off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #29	21.5 #72	MD
Yards / play	6.54 #40	5.60 #86	MD
PPA / play	+0.38 #18	+0.13 #91	MD
Success rate	49% #32	40% #72	MD

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: UVA offense

	UVA off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #59	17.0 #47	Even
Yards / play	6.92 #32	6.02 #101	UVA
PPA / play	+0.28 #39	+0.07 #74	UVA
Success rate	44% #58	40% #75	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 99 FBS teams

MD scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	14.0	4.5	18.5	8.0	10.5	18.5
UVA allowed	5.0	8.5	13.5	6.5	1.5	8.0

UVA scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	10.0	12.0	22.0	3.5	7.0	10.5
MD allowed	3.5	5.0	8.5	3.5	5.0	8.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.