Central Michigan @ Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Illinois

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Central Michigan

1-1 · Power #123

final

Final

Illinois

2-0 · Power #44

▲ winner

Closing spread

ILL -21.5

✓ CMU W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

CMU 16–38 ILL

✓ ILL (94%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenILL -17.5

CloseILL -21.5

Total53.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenILL -17.5

4 → ILL

CloseILL -21.5

4 pts toward Illinois

Total

Open53.5

▼ 4

Close49.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ILL -17.5 · closed ILL -21.5 · moved 4 toward ILLmodel ILL -21.5 matches the line

model ILL -21.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 19.5–23.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 43% (58 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenILL -17.5

CloseILL -21.5

Total53.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ILL as a 21.5-point home favorite against CMU, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ILL won 30–9; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 49.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.2 against an average line of 21.7; 57 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 4 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	JMU vs TXST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-21.75	40–13	W	O51.5
Close	SMU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest	-20.5	69–10	W	O55
Close	JMU vs ODU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-19.5	30–27	L	O48
Close	AUB vs SJSU 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & total	-24	24–16	L	U48.5
Loose	TOL vs WMU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-21.5	49–31	L	O52.5
Loose	UCF vs GT 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-21	27–10	L	U56.5
Loose	UK vs NIU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-26.75	31–23	L	O53
Loose	PITT vs GT 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & total	-21.5	21–26	L	P47
Loose	TOL vs EMU 2023 · Week 11 · loose	-19.5	49–23	W	O45.5
Loose	ASU vs EMU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-20.5	21–30	L	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CMU WL	1-1	50%	0-1	—
ILL WW	2-0	100%	2-0	1-0

Venue/role: CMU away, as underdog; ILL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CMU OO	2-0	100%	1-1
ILL UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 53% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CMU	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	6-3 67%
ILL	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CMU−12.0 →−13.9▼ 1.9#124

ILL−0.5 →+2.7▲ 3.2#53

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

CMU

Longer bar = better

ILL

#66

Offense

Even

#65

#86

Defense

ILL better ▶

#38

−2.5 #133

Turnovers

ILL better ▶

+3.5 #3

68 plays #50

Pace

◀ CMU faster

65 plays #79

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CMU has the ball

Advantage: ILL defense

	CMU off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	41.0 #30	8.5 #22	Even
Yards / play	6.32 #57	4.39 #44	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #90	−0.13 #28	ILL
Success rate	41% #87	36% #59	ILL

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: ILL offense

	ILL off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #57	31.0 #110	ILL
Yards / play	5.82 #76	5.03 #71	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #50	+0.20 #110	ILL
Success rate	42% #75	36% #53	CMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 10 FBS teams

CMU scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	7.0	18.0	25.0	16.0	0.0	16.0
ILL allowed	0.0	5.0	5.0	3.5	0.0	3.5

ILL scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	8.5	13.5	22.0	3.5	8.5	12.0
CMU allowed	7.0	10.5	17.5	5.5	8.0	13.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.