Massachusetts @ Buffalo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Buffalo

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Massachusetts

0-2 · Power #125

final

Final

Buffalo

1-1 · Power #105

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUFF -3.5

✓ BUFF W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

MASS 24–27 BUFF

✓ BUFF (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUFF -6

CloseBUFF -3.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUFF -6

2.5 → MASS

CloseBUFF -3.5

2.5 pts toward Massachusetts

Total

Open45.5

no move

Close45.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUFF -6 · closed BUFF -3.5 · moved 2.5 toward MASSmodel BUFF -1.5

model BUFF -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 47% (117 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUFF -6

CloseBUFF -3.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUFF as a 3.5-point home favorite against MASS, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BUFF won 34–3; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 45.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 3.3; 49.3 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	EMU vs AKR 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	30–27	L	O39.5
Close	CSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	22–19	L	U46.5
Close	EMU vs BALL 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	24–10	W	U43.5
Close	ECU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-3	27–29	L	O44.25
Close	WYO vs CSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & rest	-6	24–15	W	U43.5
Close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Close	TXST vs GASO 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-2	30–38	L	O52
Close	NEV vs HAW 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	14–27	L	U50
Close	USA vs GASO 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	41–14	W	O49.5
Close	RICE vs UTEP 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & season form	-3.5	37–30	W	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MASS LW	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0
BUFF WL	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: MASS away, as underdog; BUFF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MASS UO	1-1	50%	0-2
BUFF UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MASS	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-4 56%
BUFF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	0-9 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MASS−12.1 →−13.9▼ 1.8#125

BUFF−12.2 →−14.9▼ 2.7#127

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

MASS

Longer bar = better

BUFF

#111

Offense

Even

#113

#87

Defense

Even

#96

−0.5 #88

Turnovers

BUFF better ▶

+0.5 #50

80 plays #7

Pace

◀ MASS faster

61 plays #106

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MASS has the ball

Even matchup

	MASS off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	18.5 #114	25.5 #96	Even
Yards / play	4.48 #123	5.04 #72	BUFF
PPA / play	+0.01 #106	+0.11 #92	Even
Success rate	39% #102	50% #125	MASS

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: MASS defense

	BUFF off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #127	33.0 #117	Even
Yards / play	4.69 #116	5.86 #99	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #98	+0.05 #82	Even
Success rate	37% #112	35% #48	MASS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 28 FBS teams

MASS scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	0.0	6.5	6.5	5.0	7.0	12.0
BUFF allowed	1.5	10.5	12.0	6.5	7.0	13.5

BUFF scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	6.5	1.5	8.0	3.5	3.5	7.0
MASS allowed	3.5	12.0	15.5	5.0	12.5	17.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.