Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Temple
Weather at kickoff85°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›
2-0 · Power #101
28
▲ winner
Final
@
0-2 · Power #127
20
final
Closing spread
CCU -17.5
✓ TEM W
Total
51.5
▼ Under · 48 pts
Model before kickoff
CCU 36–18 TEM
✓ CCU (90%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenCCU -17
CloseCCU -17.5
Total52.5 → 51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
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Market

Open → close
Spread
0.5 pts toward Coastal Carolina
Total
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CCU -17 · closed CCU -17.5 · moved 0.5 toward CCUmodel CCU -18.5
Opened 52.5 · closed 51.5 · moved 1 downmodel 54.5
Openline modelKickoff
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenCCU -17
CloseCCU -17.5
Total52.5 → 51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 4 games most like CCU as a 17.5-point road favorite at TEM, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: CCU won 28–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 4 similar games. 48 points stayed under 51.5, as in 1 of 4.
Favorite won
3 of 475%
Normal range · usually 87%
Favorite covered
2 of 450%
Normal range · usually 51%
Went over
3 of 475%
Normal range · usually 48%

Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 16.3 against an average line of 18.5; 52.3 points a game (usually 54.5). When games like this go over ›

All 4 games
MatchGameLineFinalCoveredO/U
Loose
UCLA @ COLO
2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation
-2245–17 W O57
Loose
MRSH @ BGSU
2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation
-1731–34 L O50
Loose
RUTG @ TEM
2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread
-1816–14 L U42.75
Loose
BAY @ KU
2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & rest
-1745–7 W O48.5
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Small sample warning
Coastal Carolina have 2 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
CCU−2.5 →−1.1▲ 1.4#71
TEM−13.8 →−20.3▼ 6.5#133
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

CCU
Longer bar = better
TEM
#30
Offense
◀ CCU better
#135
#61
Defense
◀ CCU better
#125
+1.0 #40
Turnovers
◀ CCU better
−4.5 #137
75 plays #19
Pace
◀ CCU faster
64 plays #85
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When CCU has the ball
Advantage: CCU offense
CCU offTEM defEdge
Points / game 47.5 #13 44.5 #134 CCU
Yards / play 6.72 #41 6.30 #114 CCU
PPA / play +0.27 #46 +0.38 #132 CCU
Success rate 53% #18 48% #119 CCU
When TEM has the ball
Advantage: CCU defense
TEM offCCU defEdge
Points / game 7.0 #136 24.0 #90 CCU
Yards / play 4.01 #130 5.37 #81 CCU
PPA / play −0.35 #137 −0.19 #17 CCU
Success rate 25% #137 36% #55 CCU

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 30 FBS teams
CCU scoring against the TEM defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
CCU scored
15.5
13.5
29.0
10.0
8.5
18.5
TEM allowed
13.0
15.5
28.5
9.0
7.0
16.0
TEM scoring against the CCU defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
TEM scored
0.0
1.5
1.5
1.5
4.0
5.5
CCU allowed
1.5
7.0
8.5
3.5
12.0
15.5

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
TEM +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
85° · 8 mph
gusts 18 mph · at kickoff
Rest
CCU7d
TEM7d
Even
Tempo
Fast 139 plays
slowavg 132fast
Quarterback
TEM backup QB started
Not the usual starter

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week