Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Temple
Closing spread
CCU -17.5
✓ TEM W
Total
51.5
▼ Under · 48 pts
Model before kickoff
CCU 36–18 TEM
✓ CCU (90%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenCCU -17
CloseCCU -17.5
Total52.5 → 51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCCU -17
0.5 → CCU
CloseCCU -17.5
0.5 pts toward Coastal Carolina
Total
Open52.5
▼ 1
Close51.5
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CCU -17 · closed CCU -17.5 · moved 0.5 toward CCUmodel CCU -18.5
model CCU -18.5
Opened 52.5 · closed 51.5 · moved 1 downmodel 54.5
model 54.5
Openline modelKickoff
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenCCU -17
CloseCCU -17.5
Total52.5 → 51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 4 games most like
CCU as a 17.5-point road favorite at TEM, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.
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This game: CCU won 28–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 4 similar games. 48 points stayed under 51.5, as in 1 of 4.
Favorite won
3 of 475%
Normal range · usually 87%
Favorite covered
2 of 450%
Normal range · usually 51%
Went over
3 of 475%
Normal range · usually 48%
Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 16.3 against an average line of 18.5; 52.3 points a game (usually 54.5). When games like this go over ›
All 4 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose | 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation |
-22 | 45–17 | W | O57 |
| Loose | 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation |
-17 | 31–34 | L | O50 |
| Loose | 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread |
-18 | 16–14 | L | U42.75 |
| Loose | 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & rest |
-17 | 45–7 | W | O48.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Coastal Carolina have 2 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 7 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 55% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8-2 80% | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% | |
| 1-9 10% | 2-8 20% | 5-4 56% |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
CCU−2.5 →−1.1▲ 1.4#71
TEM−13.8 →−20.3▼ 6.5#133
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2
Longer bar = better
#30
Offense
◀ CCU better#135
#61
Defense
◀ CCU better#125
+1.0 #40
Turnovers
◀ CCU better−4.5 #137
75 plays #19
Pace
◀ CCU faster64 plays #85
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
| CCU off | TEM def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 47.5 #13 | 44.5 #134 | CCU |
| Yards / play | 6.72 #41 | 6.30 #114 | CCU |
| PPA / play | +0.27 #46 | +0.38 #132 | CCU |
| Success rate | 53% #18 | 48% #119 | CCU |
| TEM off | CCU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 7.0 #136 | 24.0 #90 | CCU |
| Yards / play | 4.01 #130 | 5.37 #81 | CCU |
| PPA / play | −0.35 #137 | −0.19 #17 | CCU |
| Success rate | 25% #137 | 36% #55 | CCU |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 30 FBS teams
CCU scoring against the TEM defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
15.5 | 13.5 | 29.0 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 18.5 | |
13.0 | 15.5 | 28.5 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 16.0 |
TEM scoring against the CCU defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 5.5 | |
1.5 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 12.0 | 15.5 |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
85° · 8 mph
gusts 18 mph · at kickoff
Rest
CCU7d
TEM7d
Even
Tempo
Fast 139 plays
slowavg 132fast
Quarterback
TEM backup QB started
Not the usual starter
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

