Virginia Tech @ Old Dominion: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Old Dominion

Weather at kickoff75°F17 mphgusts 30DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Virginia Tech

1-1 · Power #38

▲ winner

Final

Old Dominion

0-2 · Power #78

final

Closing spread

VT -15.5

✓ VT W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

VT 31–16 ODU

✓ VT (86%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVT -13.5

CloseVT -15.5

Total49.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenVT -13.5

2 → VT

CloseVT -15.5

2 pts toward Virginia Tech

Total

Open49.5

▼ 2

Close47.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened VT -13.5 · closed VT -15.5 · moved 2 toward VTmodel VT -12

model VT -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 44% (34 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVT -13.5

CloseVT -15.5

Total49.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VT as a 15.5-point road favorite at ODU, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: VT won 37–17; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 47.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.4 against an average line of 14.3; 45 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BOIS @ WYO 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	20–17	L	U44.5
Close	MINN @ NEB 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	20–13	L	U44.5
Close	OHIO @ BGSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-13	38–7	W	P45
Close	TULN @ ECU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-17	13–10	L	U44.5
Close	MD @ NU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-14	27–33	L	O48.5
Close	MIZ @ VAN 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	38–21	W	O54.5
Close	AFA @ CSU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & rest	-14.5	30–13	W	U47.5
Close	UCF @ TEM 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest	-11.75	49–7	W	O52
Close	UCLA @ STAN 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-17	42–7	W	U52
Close	UCLA @ SDSU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	35–10	W	U49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VT LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2
ODU WL	1-1	50%	0-1	1-0

Venue/role: VT away, as favorite; ODU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VT OU	1-1	50%	1-1
ODU UU	0-2	0%	0-2

Went over in Q4. Of 196 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-3 67%
ODU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

VT 5–3 ODU VT leads · 8 games since 2017 · VT has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 2 2023	Old Dominion 17 @ Virginia Tech 36	VT -16	VT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VT+4.6 →+5.9▲ 1.3#32

ODU−8.4 →−7.4▲ 1.0#98

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

ODU

#81

Offense

◀ VT better

#118

#78

Defense

ODU better ▶

#57

0.0 #80

Turnovers

◀ VT better

−0.5 #104

68 plays #53

Pace

ODU faster ▶

74 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VT has the ball

Advantage: ODU defense

	VT off	ODU def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #83	21.5 #76	Even
Yards / play	5.40 #91	4.49 #47	ODU
PPA / play	+0.15 #71	−0.04 #49	ODU
Success rate	42% #79	36% #57	ODU

When ODU has the ball

Advantage: VT defense

	ODU off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	16.5 #122	24.0 #89	VT
Yards / play	4.03 #129	5.15 #74	VT
PPA / play	0.00 #108	+0.08 #87	VT
Success rate	36% #113	37% #63	VT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 55 FBS teams

VT scoring against the ODU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	3.5	3.0	6.5	12.0	10.5	22.5
ODU allowed	8.0	1.5	9.5	7.0	5.0	12.0

ODU scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ODU scored	3.5	3.5	7.0	8.0	1.5	9.5
VT allowed	1.5	10.5	12.0	5.0	3.5	8.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.