UConn @ Duke: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Duke

Weather at kickoff79°F9 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

UConn

1-1 · Power #80

final

Final

Duke

2-0 · Power #60

▲ winner

Closing spread

DUKE -17.5

✓ CONN W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

CONN 14–32 DUKE

✓ DUKE (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDUKE -16.5

CloseDUKE -17.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDUKE -16.5

1 → DUKE

CloseDUKE -17.5

1 pt toward Duke

Total

Open47.5

▼ 1

Close46.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DUKE -16.5 · closed DUKE -17.5 · moved 1 toward DUKEmodel DUKE -20

model DUKE -20

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 50% (50 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDUKE -16.5

CloseDUKE -17.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DUKE as a 17.5-point home favorite against CONN, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: DUKE won 26–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 46.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.8 against an average line of 16.9; 55 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JMU vs ODU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-19.5	30–27	L	O48
Very close	USA vs TXST 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-16	38–21	W	O46
Very close	TROY vs TXST 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-16.5	17–14	L	U47
Very close	TROY vs UL 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & total	-15.5	31–24	L	O47.5
Very close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Very close	TOL vs EMU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & season form	-19.5	49–23	W	O45.5
Close	MINN vs EMU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-19.5	25–6	L	U48
Close	MRSH vs ODU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-14	41–35	L	O47
Close	MIA vs UVA 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	29–26	L	O48
Close	UAB vs UTEP 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-13.5	42–25	W	O49.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CONN LW	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1
DUKE LW	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: CONN away, as underdog; DUKE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CONN OO	2-0	100%	1-1
DUKE UO	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 181 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CONN	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-4 56%
DUKE	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CONN 0–1 DUKE DUKE leads · 1 game since 2023 · DUKE has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 23 2023	Duke 41 @ UConn 7	DUKE -22	DUKE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CONN−11.5 →−13.0▼ 1.5#120

DUKE+4.0 →+2.6▼ 1.4#57

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

CONN

Longer bar = better

DUKE

#23

Offense

◀ CONN better

#103

#122

Defense

DUKE better ▶

#16

−1.5 #124

Turnovers

DUKE better ▶

−0.5 #106

65 plays #80

Pace

DUKE faster ▶

69 plays #48

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CONN has the ball

Even matchup

	CONN off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #46	11.5 #30	Even
Yards / play	7.24 #27	3.22 #9	Even
PPA / play	+0.54 #6	−0.23 #8	Even
Success rate	56% #14	29% #15	Even

When DUKE has the ball

Even matchup

	DUKE off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #92	33.5 #120	DUKE
Yards / play	5.06 #108	6.18 #109	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #101	+0.43 #135	DUKE
Success rate	37% #110	49% #124	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 55 FBS teams

CONN scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	17.5	10.5	28.0	7.0	0.0	7.0
DUKE allowed	1.5	3.5	5.0	0.0	3.0	3.0

DUKE scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	5.0	3.5	8.5	6.0	5.0	11.0
CONN allowed	10.5	4.5	15.0	6.5	12.0	18.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.