Memphis @ Florida State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Florida State

Weather at kickoff80°F6 mphgusts 15Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Memphis

2-0 · Power #56

▲ winner

Final

Florida State

0-2 · Power #85

final

Closing spread

FSU -6.5

✓ MEM W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 32 pts

Model before kickoff

MEM 24–30 FSU

✗ FSU (67%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFSU -3.5

CloseFSU -6.5

Total52.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFSU -3.5

3 → FSU

CloseFSU -6.5

3 pts toward Florida State

Total

Open52.5

▲ 2

Close54.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FSU -3.5 · closed FSU -6.5 · moved 3 toward FSUmodel FSU -4.5

model FSU -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 53% (75 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (29 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFSU -3.5

CloseFSU -6.5

Total52.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like FSU as a 6.5-point home favorite against MEM, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: MEM won 20–12 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 3 similar games. 32 points stayed under 54.5, as in 3 of 3.

Favorite won

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

0 of 30%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 5.7 against an average line of 6.8; 45.7 points a game (usually 53.4). When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIA vs MSU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & total	-7	17–38	L	U57.5
Loose	ND vs PUR 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation	-7.5	27–13	W	U58.5
Loose	FLA vs UK 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar total & situation	-6	16–26	L	U52.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM WW	2-0	100%	—	—
FSU LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: MEM away, as underdog; FSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM UU	0-2	0%	2-0
FSU UU	0-2	0%	0-2

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 51% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEM	8-2 80%	5-4-1 56%	7-3 70%
FSU	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MEM+2.0 →+7.1▲ 5.1#27

FSU+14.6 →+8.4▼ 6.2#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

MEM

Longer bar = better

FSU

#36

Offense

◀ MEM better

#113

#27

Defense

◀ MEM better

#110

+2.0 #14

Turnovers

◀ MEM better

−0.5 #105

58 plays #126

Pace

Even

58 plays #125

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: MEM offense

	MEM off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	39.0 #36	26.0 #99	MEM
Yards / play	6.43 #49	5.88 #100	MEM
PPA / play	+0.37 #24	+0.31 #125	MEM
Success rate	49% #36	46% #115	MEM

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: MEM defense

	FSU off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #121	8.5 #21	MEM
Yards / play	5.03 #110	3.66 #18	MEM
PPA / play	+0.03 #102	−0.25 #5	MEM
Success rate	35% #117	37% #62	MEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 10 FBS teams

MEM scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	7.0	19.0	26.0	6.5	6.5	13.0
FSU allowed	3.5	10.5	14.0	7.0	5.0	12.0

FSU scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	4.0	6.0	10.0	3.5	3.5	7.0
MEM allowed	0.0	3.5	3.5	1.5	3.5	5.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.