Boston College @ Missouri: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 12:45 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Missouri

Weather at kickoff82°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Boston College

2-0 · Power #58

final

Final

Missouri

2-0 · Power #23

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIZ -14.5

✓ BC W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

BC 19–34 MIZ

✓ MIZ (85%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -16.5

CloseMIZ -14.5

Total54.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIZ -16.5

2 → BC

CloseMIZ -14.5

2 pts toward Boston College

Total

Open54.5

▼ 3

Close51.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIZ -16.5 · closed MIZ -14.5 · moved 2 toward BCmodel MIZ -16

model MIZ -16

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 88%, covered 55% (49 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -16.5

CloseMIZ -14.5

Total54.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like MIZ as a 14.5-point home favorite against BC, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: MIZ won 27–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 5 similar games. 48 points stayed under 51.5, as in 3 of 5.

Favorite won

3 of 560%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

2 of 540%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

2 of 540%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 12.6 against an average line of 14.6; 45.8 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UTAH vs BAY 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread	-14.5	23–12	L	U54
Close	KSU vs TULN 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	10–17	L	U49
Loose	KSU vs TROY 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-15	42–13	W	O50
Loose	OU vs KSU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-13.5	34–41	L	O53
Loose	UGA vs ARK 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-16.5	37–0	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BC WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
MIZ WW	2-0	100%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: BC away, as underdog; MIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BC UO	1-1	50%	2-0
MIZ UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 55% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BC	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-5 44%
MIZ	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BC−1.3 →+4.7▲ 6.0#43

MIZ+14.2 →+16.0▲ 1.8#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

MIZ

#32

Offense

Even

#29

#14

Defense

Even

+1.0 #33

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #46

64 plays #84

Pace

MIZ faster ▶

81 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BC has the ball

Advantage: MIZ defense

	BC off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	42.0 #24	0.0 #1	MIZ
Yards / play	7.34 #25	2.49 #2	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.45 #12	−0.50 #1	Even
Success rate	44% #67	20% #1	MIZ

When MIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	MIZ off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	44.5 #17	6.5 #11	Even
Yards / play	6.25 #58	3.72 #19	BC
PPA / play	+0.34 #33	−0.20 #15	Even
Success rate	61% #7	28% #10	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 26 FBS teams

BC scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	7.0	21.0	28.0	10.5	3.5	14.0
MIZ allowed	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

MIZ scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	15.5	14.0	29.5	8.5	6.5	15.0
BC allowed	0.0	3.0	3.0	3.5	0.0	3.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.