Alabama @ Wisconsin: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Wisconsin

Weather at kickoff76°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Alabama

2-0 · Power #7

▲ winner

Final

Wisconsin

2-0 · Power #47

final

Closing spread

ALA -15.5

✓ ALA W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

ALA 33–17 WIS

✓ ALA (88%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -16.5

CloseALA -15.5

Total52.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenALA -16.5

1 → WIS

CloseALA -15.5

1 pt toward Wisconsin

Total

Open52.5

▼ 5

Close47.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ALA -16.5 · closed ALA -15.5 · moved 1 toward WISmodel ALA -19.5

model ALA -19.5

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -16.5

CloseALA -15.5

Total52.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as a 15.5-point road favorite at WIS, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: ALA won 42–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 47.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 18.5 against an average line of 16; 54.7 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	OU @ CIN 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-14	20–6	P	U57.5
Loose	MICH @ MD 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-17.5	31–24	L	O50.5
Loose	MICH @ MINN 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-18.5	52–10	W	O46
Loose	UGA @ AUB 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest	-14	27–20	L	O45.5
Loose	PSU @ ILL 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-14	30–13	W	U47.5
Loose	MICH @ NEB 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-17	45–7	W	O39.5
Loose	UGA @ AUB 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & spread	-14.5	34–10	W	U45.5
Loose	UGA @ MSST 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread	-16.25	45–19	W	O53
Loose	ALA @ TA&M 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-18.5	38–41	L	O50.75
Loose	OSU @ PSU 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & spread	-15.5	44–31	L	O60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALA WL	1-1	50%	—	1-1
WIS LL	0-2	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: ALA away, as favorite; WIS home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALA OU	1-1	50%	2-0
WIS UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 189 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALA	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%
WIS	5-5 50%	4-5-1 44%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ALA+20.2 →+24.3▲ 4.1#4

WIS+5.7 →+3.8▼ 1.9#49

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

ALA

Longer bar = better

WIS

#31

Offense

◀ ALA better

#68

Defense

◀ ALA better

#64

−1.0 #120

Turnovers

WIS better ▶

0.0 #70

67 plays #65

Pace

WIS faster ▶

75 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ALA has the ball

Advantage: ALA offense

	ALA off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	52.5 #7	13.5 #40	ALA
Yards / play	7.47 #23	4.83 #61	ALA
PPA / play	+0.43 #16	+0.09 #89	ALA
Success rate	42% #77	37% #64	Even

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: ALA defense

	WIS off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #88	8.0 #17	ALA
Yards / play	5.15 #103	3.05 #6	ALA
PPA / play	+0.26 #51	−0.24 #6	ALA
Success rate	51% #30	24% #5	ALA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 10 FBS teams

ALA scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	14.0	14.0	28.0	7.0	17.5	24.5
WIS allowed	0.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	3.5	8.5

WIS scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	7.0	6.5	13.5	3.0	11.0	14.0
ALA allowed	1.5	1.5	3.0	3.5	1.5	5.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.