Arizona @ Kansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Fri, Sep 13, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Kansas State

Weather at kickoff81°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Arizona

2-0 · Power #79

final

Final

Kansas State

2-0 · Power #20

▲ winner

Closing spread

KSU -9.5

✓ KSU W

Total

61.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

ARIZ 26–35 KSU

✓ KSU (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -7

CloseKSU -9.5

Total56.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKSU -7

2.5 → KSU

CloseKSU -9.5

2.5 pts toward Kansas State

Total

Open56.5

▲ 5

Close61.5

Up 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KSU -7 · closed KSU -9.5 · moved 2.5 toward KSUmodel KSU -9.5 matches the line

model KSU -9.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 79%, covered 42% (58 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (28 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -7

CloseKSU -9.5

Total56.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KSU as a 9.5-point home favorite against ARIZ, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: KSU won 31–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 61.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.9 against an average line of 8.7; 66.5 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	USC vs WSU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest	-12.5	30–14	W	U64.5
Close	APP vs MRSH 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-7	31–30	L	O59.25
Loose	TEX vs TTU 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-9	70–35	W	O62.75
Loose	OU vs TCU 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest	-11.5	69–45	W	O66
Loose	KSU vs TCU 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest	-5.5	41–3	W	U60
Loose	FSU vs WAKE 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest	-6	21–31	L	U67.5
Loose	TCU vs SMU 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-9.5	34–42	L	O65.5
Loose	ASU vs USC 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread & rest	-9.75	31–16	W	U61.5
Loose	MSU vs WKU 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-10.5	48–31	W	O66.5
Loose	BYU vs BSU 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6	17–26	L	U58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARIZ LL	0-2	0%	—	—
KSU LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: ARIZ away, as underdog; KSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARIZ OU	1-1	50%	2-0
KSU UO	1-1	50%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 46% of games with totals 57.5–65.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARIZ	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	5-4 56%
KSU	8-2 80%	5-4-1 56%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARIZ+9.2 →+6.8▼ 2.4#28

KSU+11.5 →+12.0▲ 0.5#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

ARIZ

Longer bar = better

KSU

#36

Offense

Even

#30

#73

Defense

KSU better ▶

#56

0.0 #82

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #77

56 plays #131

Pace

Even

56 plays #130

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	ARIZ off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	41.5 #29	16.5 #53	ARIZ
Yards / play	8.82 #6	5.17 #76	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.32 #36	0.00 #65	ARIZ
Success rate	43% #74	32% #31	KSU

When KSU has the ball

Advantage: KSU offense

	KSU off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	37.5 #39	24.5 #92	KSU
Yards / play	7.54 #20	4.91 #67	KSU
PPA / play	+0.35 #28	−0.01 #62	KSU
Success rate	49% #34	38% #72	KSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 8 FBS teams

ARIZ scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	8.5	8.0	16.5	14.0	11.0	25.0
KSU allowed	3.5	8.0	11.5	1.5	3.5	5.0

KSU scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	8.5	5.0	13.5	10.0	14.0	24.0
ARIZ allowed	7.0	10.0	17.0	3.5	4.0	7.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.