Kansas State @ BYU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at BYU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff60°F3 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Kansas State

3-0 · Power #20

final

Final

BYU

3-0 · Power #22

▲ winner

Closing spread

KSU -7.5

✓ BYU W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

KSU 29–22 BYU

✗ KSU (70%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -7.5

CloseKSU -7.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKSU -7.5

no move

CloseKSU -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

▲ 1

Close48.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KSU -7.5 · unchangedmodel KSU -6.5

model KSU -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 58% (62 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -7.5

CloseKSU -7.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KSU as a 7.5-point road favorite at BYU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BYU won 38–9 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.3 against an average line of 6.2; 59.7 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ND @ LOU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	20–33	L	U54
Very close	LIB @ SYR 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	21–24	L	U54
Very close	FSU @ SYR 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	38–3	W	U51.25
Very close	ISU @ WVU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	31–38	L	O49
Close	ND @ DUKE 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	21–14	W	U52.5
Close	MICH @ MSU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-4	33–37	L	O50.5
Close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	52–40	W	O51
Close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Close	CLEM @ SYR 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	31–14	W	U53
Close	ORE @ WSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	44–41	L	O57.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KSU LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	1-2
BYU –W–	1-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: KSU away, as favorite; BYU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KSU UOU	1-2	33%	3-0
BYU –U–	0-1	0%	3-0

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KSU	8-2 80%	5-4-1 56%	4-6 40%
BYU	4-6 40%	4-4 50%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KSU+11.5 →+13.8▲ 2.3#18

BYU−4.1 →+3.3▲ 7.4#55

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

KSU

Longer bar = better

BYU

#26

Offense

◀ KSU better

#60

#44

Defense

BYU better ▶

#15

+0.3 #63

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #65

59 plays #124

Pace

BYU faster ▶

69 plays #42

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KSU has the ball

Even matchup

	KSU off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	35.3 #37	14.0 #29	Even
Yards / play	7.02 #23	3.79 #8	Even
PPA / play	+0.38 #14	−0.10 #16	Even
Success rate	49% #29	31% #7	BYU

When BYU has the ball

Even matchup

	BYU off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #68	13.3 #26	KSU
Yards / play	6.35 #51	5.21 #60	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #60	+0.04 #57	Even
Success rate	44% #60	35% #33	KSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

KSU scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	8.0 #45	5.7 #104	13.7 #84	11.3 #12	10.3 #19	21.7 #11
BYU allowed	0.0 #1	7.3 #76	7.3 #27	3.3 #34	3.3 #32	6.7 #25

BYU scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	9.3 #32	4.3 #117	13.7 #84	13.0 #7	4.3 #104	17.3 #32
KSU allowed	4.7 #71	5.3 #44	10.0 #57	1.0 #9	2.3 #17	3.3 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.