Houston @ Cincinnati: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Cincinnati · Conference game

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Houston

1-2 · Power #76

final

Final

Cincinnati

2-1 · Power #45

▲ winner

Closing spread

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Total

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Model before kickoff

HOU 22–27 CIN

✓ CIN (63%) won

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU –WW	2-0	100%	1-0	—
CIN LWW	2-1	67%	1-1	—

Venue/role: HOU away; CIN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU –UU	0-2	0%	1-2
CIN OUU	1-2	33%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	3-7 30%	6-3 67%	2-7 22%
CIN	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

HOU 0–1 CIN CIN leads · 1 game since 2023 · CIN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Cincinnati 24 @ Houston 14	HOU -3	CIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU−3.5 →−1.2▲ 2.3#71

CIN−1.7 →−0.2▲ 1.5#67

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

HOU

Longer bar = better

CIN

#121

Offense

CIN better ▶

#37

#23

Defense

◀ HOU better

#91

0.0 #81

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #93

63 plays #88

Pace

CIN faster ▶

69 plays #41

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: CIN defense

	HOU off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	17.3 #121	21.3 #69	CIN
Yards / play	4.97 #115	6.51 #120	Even
PPA / play	−0.05 #122	+0.06 #72	CIN
Success rate	34% #127	43% #101	CIN

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	30.7 #68	16.7 #46	HOU
Yards / play	7.32 #20	4.11 #21	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #33	−0.13 #19	Even
Success rate	50% #26	28% #5	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 111 FBS teams

HOU scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	5.7 #60	3.0 #104	8.7 #95	4.0 #89	4.7 #75	8.7 #90
CIN allowed	2.0 #19	6.7 #52	8.7 #35	5.7 #64	7.0 #76	12.7 #73

CIN scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	12.7 #8	5.7 #73	18.3 #37	9.0 #31	3.3 #93	12.3 #61
HOU allowed	4.7 #55	4.7 #29	9.3 #44	3.3 #29	4.0 #41	7.3 #33

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.