Iowa State @ Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff88°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Iowa State

3-0 · Power #24

▲ winner

Final

Houston

1-3 · Power #76

final

Closing spread

ISU -16.5

✓ ISU W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 20 pts

Model before kickoff

ISU 28–12 HOU

✓ ISU (87%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -13

CloseISU -16.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenISU -13

3.5 → ISU

CloseISU -16.5

3.5 pts toward Iowa State

Total

Open43.5

▼ 1

Close42.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ISU -13 · closed ISU -16.5 · moved 3.5 toward ISUmodel ISU -12.5

model ISU -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 41% (34 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -13

CloseISU -16.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ISU as a 16.5-point road favorite at HOU, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ISU won 20–0; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 20 points stayed under 42.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20 against an average line of 15.2; 43.2 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BOIS @ WYO 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-14.5	20–17	L	U44.5
Close	AFA @ CSU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-14.5	30–13	W	U47.5
Loose	ILL @ NU 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation	-14.75	41–3	W	O38
Loose	MD @ NU 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-14	27–33	L	O48.5
Loose	MINN @ NEB 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & situation	-14.5	20–13	L	U44.5
Loose	WISC @ RUTG 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & situation	-13	52–3	W	O37.5
Loose	TULN @ ECU 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & situation	-17	13–10	L	U44.5
Loose	VT @ ODU 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest	-15.5	37–17	W	O47.5
Loose	UAB @ USM 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & total	-17	34–0	W	U43.25
Loose	UCLA @ STAN 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & rest	-17	42–7	W	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ISU LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1
HOU –WW–	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: ISU away, as favorite; HOU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ISU UOO	2-1	67%	3-0
HOU –UU–	0-2	0%	1-3

Stayed under: it needed 33 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 53% of games with totals 38.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ISU	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	6-4 60%
HOU	2-8 20%	5-3 63%	1-7 13%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ISU+4.2 →+9.2▲ 5.0#25

HOU−3.5 →−4.4▼ 0.9#86

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

ISU

Longer bar = better

HOU

#50

Offense

◀ ISU better

#125

#19

Defense

◀ ISU better

#37

+1.3 #11

Turnovers

◀ ISU better

−0.8 #107

62 plays #108

Pace

Even

61 plays #114

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ISU has the ball

Even matchup

	ISU off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #63	21.0 #59	Even
Yards / play	6.51 #38	4.67 #34	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #47	+0.01 #39	Even
Success rate	46% #51	33% #17	HOU

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: ISU defense

	HOU off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	13.0 #132	9.7 #8	ISU
Yards / play	4.82 #117	3.96 #11	ISU
PPA / play	−0.07 #126	−0.10 #11	ISU
Success rate	34% #123	37% #44	ISU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ISU scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	7.0 #55	8.0 #74	15.0 #70	7.0 #63	9.0 #32	16.0 #42
HOU allowed	7.0 #97	6.0 #45	13.0 #81	4.3 #48	3.8 #40	8.0 #30

HOU scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.3 #96	2.3 #132	6.5 #129	3.0 #122	3.5 #121	6.5 #128
ISU allowed	2.3 #20	3.0 #18	5.3 #12	2.0 #13	2.3 #14	4.3 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.