BYU @ Baylor: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Baylor · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

BYU

4-0 · Power #22

▲ winner

Final

Baylor

2-2 · Power #39

final

Closing spread

BAY -3.5

✓ BYU W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

BYU 23–25 BAY

✗ BAY (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAY -2.5

CloseBAY -3.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAY -2.5

1 → BAY

CloseBAY -3.5

1 pt toward Baylor

Total

Open45.5

▲ 1

Close46.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAY -2.5 · closed BAY -3.5 · moved 1 toward BAYmodel BYU -3.5

model BYU -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 48% (127 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (39 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAY -2.5

CloseBAY -3.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAY as a 3.5-point home favorite against BYU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: BYU won 34–28 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 46.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 10.5 against an average line of 3.5; 42.7 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU vs BAY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	10–20	L	U50
Close	MIA vs LOU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-1	31–38	L	O46.5
Close	LOU vs DUKE 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-5	23–0	W	U47
Close	WSU vs CAL 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-4	28–9	W	U52.5
Close	UK vs LOU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	26–13	W	U42.5
Close	WYO vs APP 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	22–19	P	U45
Close	COLO vs BAY 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	38–31	W	O52.5
Close	SJSU vs UNLV 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	40–7	W	U51.5
Close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Close	OKST vs BAY 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-4	24–14	W	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BYU –W–W	2-0	100%	1-0	2-0
BAY WWWL	3-1	75%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: BYU away, as underdog; BAY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BYU –U–U	0-2	0%	4-0
BAY UUUO	1-3	25%	2-2

Went over in Q3. Of 200 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BYU	5-5 50%	5-3 63%	2-6 25%
BAY	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BYU 3–2 BAY BYU leads · 5 games since 1983 · BYU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BYU−4.1 →+6.3▲ 10.4#34

BAY−3.0 →+0.4▲ 3.4#67

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

BYU

Longer bar = better

BAY

#60

Offense

◀ BYU better

#97

#21

Defense

Even

#23

+1.0 #30

Turnovers

◀ BYU better

−0.8 #106

64 plays #90

Pace

Even

64 plays #89

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BYU has the ball

Advantage: BAY defense

	BYU off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #51	16.8 #35	Even
Yards / play	6.10 #62	4.27 #18	BAY
PPA / play	+0.20 #57	−0.03 #32	BAY
Success rate	43% #70	31% #7	BAY

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: BYU defense

	BAY off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	29.8 #76	12.8 #19	BYU
Yards / play	5.69 #88	4.15 #15	BYU
PPA / play	−0.02 #118	−0.10 #13	BYU
Success rate	39% #106	36% #37	BYU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BYU scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	7.0 #52	7.5 #86	14.5 #77	13.3 #6	5.0 #100	18.3 #27
BAY allowed	6.0 #89	4.8 #34	10.8 #65	2.5 #21	1.8 #11	4.3 #11

BAY scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	6.8 #63	8.5 #70	15.3 #72	8.3 #40	6.3 #78	14.5 #62
BYU allowed	0.8 #5	6.3 #55	7.0 #25	3.3 #29	2.5 #18	5.8 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.