Baylor @ Colorado: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Colorado · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Baylor

2-1 · Power #39

final

Final

Colorado

2-1 · Power #25

▲ winner

Closing spread

COLO -2.5

✓ COLO W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

BAY 25–28 COLO

✓ COLO (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCOLO -1

CloseCOLO -2.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCOLO -1

1.5 → COLO

CloseCOLO -2.5

1.5 pts toward Colorado

Total

Open54.5

no move

Close54.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened COLO -1 · closed COLO -2.5 · moved 1.5 toward COLOmodel COLO -2.5 matches the line

model COLO -2.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 48% (124 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (37 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCOLO -1

CloseCOLO -2.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like COLO as a 2.5-point home favorite against BAY, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: COLO won 38–31; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 54.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.6 against an average line of 3.2; 47.2 points a game (usually 53). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Very close	WSU vs CAL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	28–9	W	U52.5
Very close	TULN vs UTSA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	29–16	W	U52.5
Very close	TLSA vs HOU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	10–45	L	O54
Very close	TULN vs ECU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	24–9	W	U55.5
Very close	KSU vs BAY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	10–20	L	U50
Very close	LOU vs UK 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	21–52	L	O57.75
Very close	LOU vs SYR 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-3	41–3	W	U55.5
Very close	TULN vs UCF 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	45–28	W	O57.5
Very close	UAB vs LIB 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	12–36	L	U49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAY WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	1-0
COLO L–W	1-1	50%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: BAY away, as underdog; COLO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAY UUU	0-3	0%	2-1
COLO O–U	1-1	50%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 222 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAY	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-5 44%
COLO	3-7 30%	5-3-1 63%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAY−3.0 →+1.7▲ 4.7#62

COLO+0.6 →−1.4▼ 2.0#73

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

BAY

Longer bar = better

COLO

#94

Offense

COLO better ▶

#68

Defense

◀ BAY better

#69

−0.7 #102

Turnovers

COLO better ▶

0.0 #78

65 plays #85

Pace

◀ BAY faster

62 plays #101

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: COLO defense

	BAY off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #80	21.0 #59	COLO
Yards / play	5.89 #77	5.50 #78	Even
PPA / play	−0.03 #119	+0.10 #79	COLO
Success rate	41% #98	39% #59	COLO

When COLO has the ball

Advantage: BAY defense

	COLO off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #106	9.7 #10	BAY
Yards / play	6.33 #52	3.84 #10	BAY
PPA / play	+0.16 #73	−0.13 #11	BAY
Success rate	47% #39	26% #1	BAY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

BAY scoring against the COLO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	8.0 #45	4.3 #113	12.3 #90	11.0 #15	6.0 #78	17.0 #34
COLO allowed	9.0 #115	8.0 #85	17.0 #107	0.0 #1	4.0 #46	4.0 #11

COLO scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
COLO scored	4.7 #86	5.7 #98	10.3 #99	5.7 #81	7.0 #56	12.7 #69
BAY allowed	5.7 #85	3.0 #19	8.7 #45	1.0 #8	0.0 #1	1.0 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.