Arkansas State @ Iowa State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Iowa State

Weather at kickoff86°F13 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Arkansas State

2-1 · Power #113

final

Final

Iowa State

2-0 · Power #24

▲ winner

Closing spread

ISU -18.5

✓ ISU W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

ARST 16–34 ISU

✓ ISU (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -20.5

CloseISU -18.5

Total51.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenISU -20.5

2 → ARST

CloseISU -18.5

2 pts toward Arkansas State

Total

Open51.5

▲ 1

Close52.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ISU -20.5 · closed ISU -18.5 · moved 2 toward ARSTmodel ISU -16

model ISU -16

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 17.5–19.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 56% (41 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 38% (32 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -20.5

CloseISU -18.5

Total51.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ISU as an 18.5-point home favorite against ARST, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ISU won 52–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 52.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20.4 against an average line of 17.9; 50.8 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NCST vs LT 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-17.75	34–27	L	O56
Close	OHIO vs WMU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total	-16.5	20–17	L	U52
Close	BOIS vs USU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & total	-16.5	42–23	W	O52
Close	MINN vs EMU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation	-19.5	25–6	L	U48
Close	TROY vs ARST 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total	-15.5	37–3	W	U52
Close	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · close	-18.5	55–3	W	O51
Close	ASU vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar total	-20	38–15	W	P53
Close	TA&M vs SC 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar season form	-19.5	44–14	W	O46
Close	ASU vs WSU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-16.5	21–34	L	O54.5
Close	CLEM vs MIA 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & spread	-19	40–10	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARST –L–	0-1	0%	—	—
ISU LW	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: ARST away, as underdog; ISU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARST –U–	0-1	0%	2-1
ISU UO	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 224 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARST	5-5 50%	4-4 50%	3-5 38%
ISU	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARST−7.6 →−6.5▲ 1.1#92

ISU+4.2 →+5.5▲ 1.3#42

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

ARST

Longer bar = better

ISU

#102

Offense

ISU better ▶

#75

#114

Defense

ISU better ▶

#42

0.0 #74

Turnovers

ISU better ▶

+1.0 #28

78 plays #4

Pace

◀ ARST faster

56 plays #133

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARST has the ball

Advantage: ISU defense

	ARST off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	26.7 #87	11.0 #22	ISU
Yards / play	4.84 #120	4.30 #29	ISU
PPA / play	+0.12 #83	−0.03 #43	ISU
Success rate	35% #119	40% #72	ISU

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: ISU offense

	ISU off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	20.5 #112	27.7 #99	Even
Yards / play	6.38 #49	6.68 #125	ISU
PPA / play	+0.17 #65	+0.21 #108	ISU
Success rate	43% #72	48% #125	ISU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 119 FBS teams

ARST scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	4.3 #85	3.3 #108	7.7 #110	9.3 #26	9.7 #22	19.0 #21
ISU allowed	3.5	4.5	8.0	3.0	0.0	3.0

ISU scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	3.5	3.5	7.0	7.0	6.5	13.5
ARST allowed	3.3 #44	9.3 #91	12.7 #74	5.7 #64	9.3 #104	15.0 #97

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.