Arizona State @ Texas Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Texas Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff89°F14 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Arizona State

3-0 · Power #18

final

Final

Texas Tech

2-1 · Power #46

▲ winner

Closing spread

TTU -4.5

✓ TTU W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

ASU 24–30 TTU

✓ TTU (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTTU -2.5

CloseTTU -4.5

Total60.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTTU -2.5

2 → TTU

CloseTTU -4.5

2 pts toward Texas Tech

Total

Open60.5

▼ 3

Close57.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TTU -2.5 · closed TTU -4.5 · moved 2 toward TTUmodel TTU -9

model TTU -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 49% (71 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (41 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTTU -2.5

CloseTTU -4.5

Total60.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TTU as a 4.5-point home favorite against ASU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: TTU won 30–22; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 52 points stayed under 57.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.5 against an average line of 5.6; 54.3 points a game (usually 52.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	HOU vs TULN 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread	-5.5	24–27	L	U52
Close	TCU vs SMU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	34–17	W	U63
Close	NIU vs VAN 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	28–38	L	O58.5
Close	MIA vs DUKE 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-10	21–45	L	O59
Close	TLSA vs HOU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total	-3.5	10–45	L	O54
Close	FSU vs SYR 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	33–30	L	O50.25
Close	ND vs PUR 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest	-7.5	27–13	W	U58.5
Loose	OKST vs BAY 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest	-4	24–14	W	U47
Loose	FLA vs FSU 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar spread & rest	-4	24–21	L	U58.5
Loose	UTAH vs UCLA 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread & rest	-6.25	44–24	W	O60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ASU WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	1-0
TTU LL–	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: ASU away, as underdog; TTU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ASU OUO	2-1	67%	3-0
TTU OU–	1-1	50%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 12. 52% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ASU	5-5 50%	6-3-1 67%	6-4 60%
TTU	6-4 60%	3-6 33%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ASU 3–4 TTU TTU leads · 7 games since 1999 · TTU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ASU−3.3 →+2.9▲ 6.2#60

TTU+4.7 →+6.6▲ 1.9#33

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

ASU

Longer bar = better

TTU

#47

Offense

TTU better ▶

#30

#51

Defense

◀ ASU better

#108

+2.0 #7

Turnovers

◀ ASU better

0.0 #85

73 plays #17

Pace

Even

77 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ASU has the ball

Advantage: ASU offense

	ASU off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #33	36.3 #124	ASU
Yards / play	5.73 #87	6.44 #118	ASU
PPA / play	+0.27 #39	+0.17 #95	ASU
Success rate	49% #29	42% #94	ASU

When TTU has the ball

Even matchup

	TTU off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	44.7 #14	19.3 #54	TTU
Yards / play	6.97 #30	4.45 #35	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #40	−0.02 #46	Even
Success rate	48% #37	39% #68	TTU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 121 FBS teams

ASU scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	11.3 #18	13.7 #19	25.0 #15	10.3 #18	1.0 #117	11.3 #80
TTU allowed	7.0 #89	11.3 #105	18.3 #102	7.0 #83	9.0 #102	16.0 #106

TTU scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	14.0 #7	17.3 #4	31.3 #4	4.7 #85	6.3 #68	11.0 #84
ASU allowed	2.3 #24	5.7 #44	8.0 #34	4.7 #51	6.7 #77	11.3 #63

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.