Kansas @ West Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at West Virginia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F4 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Kansas

1-2 · Power #35

final

Final

West Virginia

1-2 · Power #63

▲ winner

Closing spread

WVU -1.5

✓ WVU W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

KU 28–29 WVU

✓ WVU (53%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWVU -2.5

CloseWVU -1.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWVU -2.5

1 → KU

CloseWVU -1.5

1 pt toward Kansas

Total

Open57.5

▼ 1

Close56.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WVU -2.5 · closed WVU -1.5 · moved 1 toward KUmodel KU -1.5

model KU -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 45%, covered 42% (67 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWVU -2.5

CloseWVU -1.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WVU as a 1.5-point home favorite against KU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: WVU won 32–28; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 56.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7 against an average line of 2.2; 53.2 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WVU vs TEX 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.25	31–23	W	U56.5
Very close	FLA vs LSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	35–45	L	O51.5
Very close	TTU vs UCF 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	24–23	L	U59.5
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	31–12	W	U58.5
Very close	TULN vs UAB 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	21–28	L	U54.5
Very close	TTU vs TCU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	35–28	W	O59.5
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Close	LOU vs PITT 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-1.5	24–10	W	U55
Close	MEM vs HOU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	32–33	L	O57.5
Close	PUR vs ILL 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-1	44–19	W	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KU LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	—
WVU LLL	0-3	0%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: KU away, as underdog; WVU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KU UUU	0-3	0%	1-2
WVU UOO	2-1	67%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 212 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
WVU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KU+7.2 →+7.8▲ 0.6#27

WVU+4.6 →+3.6▼ 1.0#54

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

WVU

#59

Offense

Even

#70

#31

Defense

◀ KU better

#103

−2.0 #134

Turnovers

Even

−1.7 #132

63 plays #91

Pace

WVU faster ▶

66 plays #63

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KU has the ball

Advantage: KU offense

	KU off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #78	28.7 #104	KU
Yards / play	6.40 #48	6.27 #112	KU
PPA / play	+0.14 #75	+0.25 #117	KU
Success rate	48% #35	40% #78	KU

When WVU has the ball

Advantage: KU defense

	WVU off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #61	16.3 #44	Even
Yards / play	6.02 #75	4.07 #18	KU
PPA / play	+0.14 #77	−0.04 #39	KU
Success rate	44% #65	32% #21	KU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 111 FBS teams

KU scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	4.7 #71	15.7 #10	20.3 #27	4.7 #77	3.3 #93	8.0 #92
WVU allowed	3.3 #38	13.7 #105	17.0 #92	4.7 #47	7.0 #76	11.7 #63

WVU scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	7.0 #49	10.0 #46	17.0 #43	7.0 #47	7.7 #41	14.7 #48
KU allowed	2.0 #19	6.7 #52	8.7 #35	1.0 #7	6.7 #70	7.7 #35

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.