Tulane @ Louisiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Louisiana

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Tulane

1-2 · Power #40

▲ winner

Final

Louisiana

2-0 · Power #71

final

Closing spread

TULN -1.5

✓ TULN W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 74 pts

Model before kickoff

TULN 27–25 UL

✓ TULN (56%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -3.5

CloseTULN -1.5

Total55.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTULN -3.5

2 → UL

CloseTULN -1.5

2 pts toward Louisiana

Total

Open55.5

▼ 2

Close53.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TULN -3.5 · closed TULN -1.5 · moved 2 toward ULmodel TULN -4.5

model TULN -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 50%, covered 46% (46 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 39% (31 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -3.5

CloseTULN -1.5

Total55.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TULN as a 1.5-point road favorite at UL, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TULN won 41–33; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 74 points went over 53.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.6 against an average line of 4.4; 50.2 points a game (usually 53.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	ORST @ SDSU 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar total & situation	-5.5	21–0	W	U54
Loose	WIS @ WSU 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation	-5.5	22–31	L	U58
Loose	PSU @ AUB 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & spread	-2.5	41–12	W	O47.5
Loose	TEX @ ARK 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & total	-6	21–40	L	O57.5
Loose	NCST @ BC 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar total	-3	33–7	W	U51
Loose	MICH @ NEB 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar total & spread	-2.5	32–29	W	O50
Loose	IOWA @ MD 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & season form	-3	51–14	W	O47.5
Loose	WVU @ VT 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & spread	-2	33–10	W	U49.75
Loose	CLEM @ SYR 2023 · Week 5 · loose	-7	31–14	W	U53
Loose	ISU @ BAY 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-7	29–31	L	O46

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TULN WWL	2-1	67%	0-1	1-0
UL –W	1-0	100%	—	—

Venue/role: TULN away, as favorite; UL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TULN UOO	2-1	67%	1-2
UL –U	0-1	0%	2-0

Went over in Q3. Of 210 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TULN	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
UL	5-5 50%	5-3-1 63%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TULN+1.3 →+4.1▲ 2.8#49

UL−5.1 →−2.3▲ 2.8#76

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

TULN

Longer bar = better

#65

Offense

UL better ▶

#14

#70

Defense

UL better ▶

#35

−0.3 #95

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #84

63 plays #94

Pace

Even

62 plays #104

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TULN has the ball

Advantage: UL defense

	TULN off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #56	10.0 #20	UL
Yards / play	6.57 #36	4.54 #39	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #56	−0.05 #38	Even
Success rate	38% #111	35% #41	UL

When UL has the ball

Advantage: UL offense

	UL off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #29	22.7 #77	UL
Yards / play	7.54 #16	5.14 #64	UL
PPA / play	+0.57 #4	+0.02 #56	UL
Success rate	57% #8	40% #82	UL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 111 FBS teams

TULN scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	4.7 #71	11.0 #36	15.7 #54	7.0 #47	10.0 #19	17.0 #30
UL allowed	3.5	0.0	3.5	3.5	3.0	6.5

UL scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	3.5	21.5	25.0	10.5	1.5	12.0
TULN allowed	3.3 #38	7.0 #61	10.3 #53	4.3 #43	8.0 #84	12.3 #69

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.