Rice @ Army: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Army · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Rice

1-2 · Power #104

final

Final

Army

2-0 · Power #52

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARMY -7.5

✓ ARMY W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

RICE 19–27 ARMY

✓ ARMY (70%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARMY -4

CloseARMY -7.5

Total41.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARMY -4

3.5 → ARMY

CloseARMY -7.5

3.5 pts toward Army

Total

Open41.5

▲ 1

Close42.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARMY -4 · closed ARMY -7.5 · moved 3.5 toward ARMYmodel ARMY -6.5

model ARMY -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 50% (66 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 32% (25 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARMY -4

CloseARMY -7.5

Total41.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARMY as a 7.5-point home favorite against RICE, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ARMY won 37–14; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 42.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10 against an average line of 8.4; 46.4 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	RUTG vs VT 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	35–16	W	O37.5
Close	AFA vs WYO 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	34–27	L	O42
Loose	MRSH vs VT 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-5.5	24–17	W	U41.5
Loose	MRSH vs UL 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation	-10.5	13–23	L	U45
Loose	JXST vs EMU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	21–0	W	U51
Loose	AFA vs SDSU 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar total	-10.5	49–10	W	O43.5
Loose	ARMY vs M-OH 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-7.5	23–10	W	U48.75
Loose	OHIO vs M-OH 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation	-7.5	16–30	L	O39
Loose	TROY vs CCU 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar spread	-6.5	45–26	W	O49
Loose	LIB vs VT 2022 · Week 12 · loose	-10.5	22–23	L	U46.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RICE LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	0-1
ARMY WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: RICE away, as underdog; ARMY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RICE UOU	1-2	33%	1-2
ARMY OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q3. Of 109 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–46.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RICE	4-6 40%	5-4-1 56%	4-6 40%
ARMY	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RICE−5.5 →−9.8▼ 4.3#106

ARMY−16.8 →−6.8▲ 10.0#93

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

RICE

Longer bar = better

ARMY

#108

Offense

ARMY better ▶

#23

#53

Defense

◀ RICE better

#67

−1.0 #114

Turnovers

ARMY better ▶

+1.0 #33

59 plays #121

Pace

ARMY faster ▶

63 plays #92

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RICE has the ball

Advantage: ARMY defense

	RICE off	ARMY def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #72	7.0 #11	ARMY
Yards / play	5.46 #98	4.88 #55	ARMY
PPA / play	−0.08 #126	+0.08 #79	ARMY
Success rate	30% #135	47% #122	Even

When ARMY has the ball

Advantage: ARMY offense

	ARMY off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #52	24.7 #86	ARMY
Yards / play	6.99 #28	4.62 #44	Even
PPA / play	+0.45 #11	+0.06 #71	ARMY
Success rate	62% #2	30% #10	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 111 FBS teams

RICE scoring against the ARMY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RICE scored	4.7 #71	10.3 #40	15.0 #57	8.0 #37	7.0 #49	15.0 #44
ARMY allowed	3.5	3.5	7.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

ARMY scoring against the RICE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARMY scored	10.5	7.0	17.5	5.0	10.5	15.5
RICE allowed	10.3 #103	4.3 #26	14.7 #78	5.3 #58	4.7 #47	10.0 #47

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.