Rice @ Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Houston

Weather at kickoff87°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Rice

1-1 · Power #104

final

Final

Houston

0-2 · Power #76

▲ winner

Closing spread

HOU -3.5

✓ HOU W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

RICE 20–25 HOU

✓ HOU (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -5.5

CloseHOU -3.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -5.5

2 → RICE

CloseHOU -3.5

2 pts toward Rice

Total

Open42.5

▲ 1

Close43.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -5.5 · closed HOU -3.5 · moved 2 toward RICEmodel HOU -9.5

model HOU -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 47% (120 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 40% (30 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -5.5

CloseHOU -3.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 3.5-point home favorite against RICE, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: HOU won 33–7; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 43.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 0.5 against an average line of 3.5; 48.9 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SC vs TROY 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	23–14	W	U43.5
Close	UAB vs FAU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	31–14	W	U49
Loose	VT vs SYR 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	36–41	L	O45.5
Loose	FAU vs ARMY 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & spread	-1.5	7–24	L	U42.5
Loose	WYO vs CSU 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & total	-6	24–15	W	U43.5
Loose	MTSU vs JXST 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & rest	-3	30–45	L	O52
Loose	FAU vs MTSU 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	17–27	L	U49.5
Loose	ARIZ vs SDSU 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-1.5	14–38	L	O46.5
Loose	WYO vs APP 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-3	22–19	P	U45
Loose	VT vs SYR 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread & total	-2.5	38–10	W	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RICE LW	1-1	50%	—	—
HOU –W	1-0	100%	—	—

Venue/role: RICE away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RICE UO	1-1	50%	1-1
HOU –U	0-1	0%	0-2

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RICE	4-6 40%	5-4-1 56%	4-5 44%
HOU	2-8 20%	5-4 56%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

RICE 1–0 HOU RICE leads · 1 game since 2023 · RICE has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 9 2023	Houston 41 @ Rice 43	HOU -7.5	RICE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RICE−5.5 →−8.6▼ 3.1#101

HOU−3.5 →−2.4▲ 1.1#76

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

RICE

Longer bar = better

HOU

#72

Offense

◀ RICE better

#130

#34

Defense

Even

#44

−0.5 #100

Turnovers

◀ RICE better

−1.0 #118

63 plays #92

Pace

Even

64 plays #87

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RICE has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	RICE off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	41.5 #20	21.5 #73	RICE
Yards / play	6.40 #48	4.53 #38	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #102	−0.04 #41	HOU
Success rate	36% #119	33% #25	HOU

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: RICE defense

	HOU off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	9.5 #137	20.5 #64	RICE
Yards / play	4.45 #126	3.92 #16	RICE
PPA / play	−0.15 #132	−0.01 #49	RICE
Success rate	35% #124	30% #6	RICE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 99 FBS teams

RICE scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RICE scored	7.0	15.5	22.5	12.0	7.0	19.0
HOU allowed	7.0	7.0	14.0	5.0	2.5	7.5

HOU scoring against the RICE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	1.5	1.5	3.0	3.0	3.5	6.5
RICE allowed	8.5	3.5	12.0	5.0	3.5	8.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.