Cincinnati @ Miami (OH): Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Miami (OH)

Weather at kickoff79°F9 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Cincinnati

1-1 · Power #45

▲ winner

Final

Miami (OH)

0-1 · Power #73

final

Closing spread

CIN -3.5

✓ CIN W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 26–23 M-OH

✓ CIN (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -2.5

CloseCIN -3.5

Total45.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -2.5

1 → CIN

CloseCIN -3.5

1 pt toward Cincinnati

Total

Open45.5

▲ 2

Close47.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -2.5 · closed CIN -3.5 · moved 1 toward CINmodel CIN -0.5

model CIN -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 50%, covered 39% (66 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -2.5

CloseCIN -3.5

Total45.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 3.5-point road favorite at M-OH, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 27–16; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.4 against an average line of 3; 49.8 points a game (usually 53.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIA @ UVA 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-3	14–12	L	U48.5
Close	LIB @ ODU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	38–24	W	O47.5
Close	NEB @ RUTG 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread	-3	14–13	L	U50.5
Close	NEB @ MINN 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	23–30	L	O48.5
Close	NMSU @ UTEP 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-3	28–7	W	U49
Close	OHIO @ M-OH 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	37–21	W	O52
Close	APP @ MRSH 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-2	21–28	L	O47.5
Close	FAU @ UTEP 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	21–24	L	U50.75
Close	ECU @ NAVY 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	38–35	L	O46.5
Close	SJSU @ SDSU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.25	27–43	L	O41

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN LW	1-1	50%	—	0-1
M-OH L	0-1	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: CIN away, as favorite; M-OH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN OU	1-1	50%	1-1
M-OH U	0-1	0%	0-1

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 53% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
M-OH	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	2-7 22%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CIN 0–1 M-OH M-OH leads · 1 game since 2023 · M-OH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 16 2023	Miami (OH) 31 @ Cincinnati 24	CIN -14.5	M-OH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN−1.7 →−1.5▲ 0.2#72

M-OH−4.7 →−4.2▲ 0.5#87

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

CIN

Longer bar = better

M-OH

#31

Offense

◀ CIN better

#122

#102

Defense

M-OH better ▶

#65

−1.0 #114

Turnovers

M-OH better ▶

0.0 #64

69 plays #41

Pace

◀ CIN faster

61 plays #104

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #64	13.0 #35	M-OH
Yards / play	8.02 #10	5.38 #82	CIN
PPA / play	+0.38 #20	−0.05 #45	CIN
Success rate	51% #29	43% #96	CIN

When M-OH has the ball

Even matchup

	M-OH off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	6.0 #137	24.0 #87	CIN
Yards / play	4.38 #126	6.59 #122	Even
PPA / play	−0.08 #125	+0.11 #93	CIN
Success rate	39% #100	44% #104	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.